Overall rain deficit for the country as a whole stays stubbornly at 22 per cent even after two days of good monsoon performance over central India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that another rain wave from the Bay of Bengal might enter Odisha and Madhya Pradesh later this week.
GAINS MADE
Global model outlook tends to agree with this prognosis. Central India and southern peninsula have made some gains from the latest run of the monsoon.
The deficit over central India has come down to 23 per cent as of Monday.
But the south peninsula is only a shade better at 22 per cent.
North-West India, the worst hit region, continues to pile on the deficit which stood 42 per cent.
East and north-east India falls in the ‘normal’ category as IMD defines it, with a deficit of only seven per cent.
Central India and adjoining north peninsular India are expected to receive even more showers from the next rain wave building in the Bay of Bengal.
NEXT WAVE
Model forecasts show a heavy rain-head moving across and into central India from Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
This should help further ease the deficit situation over the region, with some spinoff gains for adjoining peninsula as well.
The west coast, including Konkan and Mumbai, would continue to witness moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the session.
Meanwhile, on Monday, South China Sea gave birth to the latest typhoon (cyclone) named ‘Vicente’ which could distract the monsoon flows.
RAINS FORECAST
Sunday’s low-pressure area over west India has since weakened, and is forcing rains to spread more towards the east.
Forecasts valid until Thursday said that rains may lash Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.
The west coast and east Rajasthan would also receive thundershowers. Parts of Jharkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat and Lakshadweep also are expected to experience showers.
An IMD warning spoke about the possibility of heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, west Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the next two days.