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A couple of global weather models have indicated that the current wet session over central India may start receding as early as from Friday.
Most parts of north-west (Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana) would be left in the lurch as rains would be confined to the Himalayan foothills, east India and the west coast.
‘NEAR BREAK’
Seasonal rains would thus forfeit the ongoing surge in east and central India, and withdraw to conditions closely resembling ‘break-monsoon’.
This is a condition in which rains get increasingly confined to the Himalayan foothills, east India and parts of South-East.
But full break-monsoon cannot be declared unless rain on the west coast die out, which, in this case, may not happen at least until July 10.
Extended forecast for this period indicate that rains would linger over the west coast, though not very heavy.
Along with north-west India, adjoining central and peninsular India also is forecast to progressively dry up or receive less than normal rain during this period.
MONSOON ADVANCE
On Wednesday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the monsoon has advanced into west Gujarat, entire Maharashtra and more parts of Madhya Pradesh.
Its northern limit passed through Jamnagar, Ahmadabad, Ratlam, Sagar, Satna, Varanasi and Gorakhpur.
Conditions are favourable for its further advance into entire Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and east Rajasthan during the next three days.
RAIN WARNING
A warning valid for the next two days said that heavy rainfall would break out over Konkan, Goa, south Gujarat, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.
Its extended forecast valid until July 11 said that rain or thundershowers would lash many places over west coast, east and central India, the North-eastern States and Uttar Pradesh.
A few places over Punjab, Haryana and east Rajasthan may receive rain or thundershowers during this period, the IMD outlook added.
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