India Met Department sees a further scale-up of rainfall over west and north-west India from Thursday when a new low-pressure area is expected to form over north-west Bay of Bengal.
A preparatory cyclonic circulation is already in place over the region, which would descend to the appropriate lower levels to set up the ‘low.’
This is even as two existing ‘low’s over south-east Rajasthan and over south-west Gujarat and adjoining north-east Arabian Sea are well in contention and piloting a vigorous monsoon over west India.
Passing western disturbances will periodically ignite rainfall peaks from time to time in what is a rare ensemble of full-blown monsoon systems combining to ratchet up performance levels manifold.
Meanwhile, a couple of international models suspect that the new ‘low’ would be made to loiter around the Odisha coast due to the ongoing hyperactive monsoon over land.
Blocking entry In fact, the two prevailing ‘low’s are forecast to merge into a single trough and continue to pour it down over Gujarat, Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh.
Interaction with western disturbances will boost up the rains further, so much so a potential rain-head may break away and move out to Punjab-Haryana-Delhi to take care of the proceedings there.
This is even as the parent sits smack over east Gujarat and adjoining east Rajasthan dumping heavy rainfall in that region.
Later they may combine into a single system and roll down the plains towards east Rajasthan and south-west Uttar Pradesh even as it is buffeted by strong monsoon flows.
This is what may effectively block the entry the new-born ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal from entering land at least until Saturday up to when forecasts were available.
Wagging tail The US Climate Prediction Centre sees west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Gujarat and the West Coast coming under a spell of vigorous monsoon during the next week as well.
The rest of central and west India – extending right from coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Konkan-Mumbai – too would come in for a battering.