Wet regime seen migrating to eastern parts

East Gujarat and Konkan-Goa witnessed vigorous to active monsoon conditions during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.

The well-marked low-pressure area has weakened twice over to be a rudimentary upper air cyclonic circulation over west Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan by the evening.

International models also suggest that a push of dry westerly winds from the north-west would drive the cyclonic circulation towards the plains of the east. Accompanying rains will also migrate in this manner towards east India and adjoining east-central India.

Still, a few weather-generating systems are present over central and adjoining west India capable of sustaining showers in the neighbourhood and across parts of the northwest.

Latest indications suggest that these rains may reach up to Punjab, but not quite Jammu and Kashmir, which is reeling under the worst rain-triggered catastrophe witnessed in well over a century.

A scenario for a fresh wave of rainfall originating from the Bengal, off the Odisha coast, is also building with a preparatory cyclonic circulation showing up in the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.

An outlook by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggested that this could grow into a low-pressure area under the influence of a pulse landing from the South China Sea.

But on Wednesday, it pointed to simultaneous development in both the South China Sea and adjoining west Pacific which could take the momentum away from the Bay.

Still, the European Centre persisted with the outlook for sufficient conditions off the coast to sustain rains into east-central and adjoining east India.

Meanwhile, an Indian Met Department outlook suggested that the monsoon will continue to be strong over east Gujarat, Konkan-Goa, Surashtra and Kutch for the next couple of days.

East Rajasthan in northwest India and Odisha in east-central India will be the two other regions where moderate to heavy rainfall will be recorded during this phase.

An extended prediction said rain or thundershowers would break out over west and north Gujarat; east Rajasthan; Madhya Pradesh; Uttar Pradesh; coastal Karnataka; and the rest of east and northeast India.

The overall rain deficit for the country as a whole stays at 11 per cent. Northwest India and northeast India are still left with deficits of 21 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.

Central India at five per cent and South Peninsula at four per cent have returned a much better position.