A pinch of jeera (cumin seed) will pinch more than just a pinch.! The price of the seed spice has crossed ₹50,000 per quintal (₹500 per kg) in the futures, leaving consumers in jitters.
A resident of Ahmedabad, Ketki Vaishnav, says, “Jeera isn’t a large consumption item for us. But the prices have more than doubled over last year. This sharp price rise definitely pinches.”
Jeera comes handy for traditional healing methods for indigestion, weight loss, cholesterol and inflammation, With prices soaring, consumers will have to dig a bit deep into their pockets now.
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However, neither the consumers nor exporters are likely to cut down on their off-take. “Jeera isn’t an essential commodity, nor does it contribute to the inflation index. So while doubling of the prices affects the consumers, their quantity consumed is not much. Second, on exports front the entire pipeline is empty in global markets. And India is the only supplier at present, so the exporters are compelled to buy even at higher prices,” said Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory.
Crop estimate
]Notably, the prices in futures markets have doubled since December 2022 from the levels of ₹25,085 a quintal to ₹50,765 for NCDEX June futures contract. Intra-day, the prices jumped by over 4 per cent from previous close in futures. In the spot market at Unjha, jeera hit a high of ₹51,259.05 per quintal on Monday afternoon.
According to market sources, till now jeera arrivals have stood at about 1.29 lakh tonnes. According to the crop estimates by the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS), jeera output is likely to be around 3.84 lakh tonnes (69.96 lakh bags of 55 kg each) for 2022-23 — up 28 per cent from last year’s 3.01 lakh tonnes. This is after the 12.9 per cent increase in the acreage in key growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan. The yields were estimated higher by 13.2 per cent over last year.
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However, the unseasonal rains in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan and moist and cloudy weather during the winter has resulted into reduced crop estimate of about 60 lakh bags. Also, the El Nino effect during later part of the monsoon season is expected to further impact the prospects and hurt the sentiment.
Positive outlook
The other global suppliers, Turkey and Syria, are likely to face uncertainty on crops, thereby leaving India as a sole supplier to the global markets at present. This is likely to further fuel the bullish sentiment for the seed spice.
Premchand Motta, a spices expert, suggested that there is further upside likely in the seed spice. He said, “Jeera will remain up and up as supply is restricted. Already good export business has been done. The outlook for jeera is good but profit booking will be seen.”
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