Monsoon is forecast to enter another vigorous phase before reverting to normal during the rest of July, according to tracking models.
A low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and a western disturbance just pushing in over northwest India would be main weather-setting systems for now.
INTERACTIVE RAIN
Monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal are seen predictably interacting with opposing winds brought in by the western disturbance to set off rains over northwest and adjoining central India.
But parts of interior peninsula (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and even Maharashtra) might witness indifferent rain even as it pours down heavily in the neighbourhood.
Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services sees possibilities for enhanced convection (cloud-building process) to continue over the Bay of Bengal during this week.
Causative factors for the resurgence in the Bay could also trigger activity in the Northwest Pacific, just across Myanmar-Thailand region.
PACIFIC BEHAVIOUR
On Tuesday, a tropical depression developed in the Philippine seas, close on the heels of powerful typhoon Soulik that had sped monsoon flows to a new peak across India last week. But the latest depression may not power itself into a major storm since it is endowed with much less elbowroom. Given this, it would chiefly be the low-pressure area in the Bay that would guide the behaviour of the monsoon.
It could also help bring back the offshore trough along the West Coast, now a feeble formation, to full strength.
HEAVY RAIN ALERT
India Met Department said about as much in its warning issued on Tuesday. Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could also lash Odisha, East Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Telangana, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
On Thursday, heavy to very heavy rainfall may break out over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh. Heavy rainfall is also likely over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, East Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Extended forecast valid from July 19 to 23 predict rainfall at many places over western Himalayan region, Gangetic plains, West Coast, Central, East and Northeast India.
vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in