The APEC Climate Center (APCC) has said there is a 62 per cent chance for La Nina conditions to persist between December 2024 and February 2025 with conditions turning neutral during February-April 2025 and March-May 2025.
“The APCC ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) alert suggests ‘La Niña Watch’. Niño3.4 index is expected to be -0.8℃ for January 2025 and gradually increase to -0.3℃ for May 2025,” it said in its latest update.
According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), La Nina threshold is reached when the index drops below -0.8℃. The BoM has predicted that La Nina is unlikely to emerge before February 2025.
The Climate Prediction Center of the US has forecast that there is a 57 per cent chance of La Nia emerging during October-December and expects the weather event to persist through January-March 2025.
Above-normal temperature for most of the globe
APCC predicted above-normal rainfall for India during December 2024-25 even as it projected increased chances of below-normal rainfall in the western Indian Ocean.
It foresees a strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures for most of the globe except for the central and eastern tropical Pacific during December 2024-May 2025. At the same time, it sees an increased possibility for below-normal rains in the western equatorial Pacific.
The APEC weather agency said there was a strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures over the Indian Ocean (excluding the southern region) and South-East Asia (excluding the Indochinese Peninsula).