India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed mounting a watch for another rain-driving low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal by Monday that could potentially end the brief respite for the East Coast and adjoining states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha from catastrophic rainfall earlier during this week.

 

What is more, the IMD has put the system in the making under watch for intensification already, hinting at what could likely unfold over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka as also parts of West Maharashtra and the West Coast which saw a frenetic run of a predecessor depression causing death and devastation.

A third, stronger one, in the offing?

Hardly would have the system crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast by Tuesday or Wednesday than another one forms in its wake in the Bay, likely the strongest on the scene by then, yet again an offshoot of relentless push from a stormy West Pacific/South China Sea upstream, due to conducive La Nina conditions in the East Pacific.

During a La Nina, sea surface temperatures in the East Equatorial Pacific cools below a threshold, and in a typical see-sawing fashion, those in the West Pacific (closer to Asia/India) look up raising the level of storminess that gets conveyed into the Bay of Bengal by seasonal easterly/north-easterlies that blow in from that region.

North-East monsoon delayed

This is to suggest that the North-East monsoon would set in any time soon over the Bay, Peninsular India or the Arabian Sea where the westerly component from the erstwhile South-West monsoon (its withdrawal is being delayed indefinitely) would be at play at least until October 25 as per IMD's short-to-medium term guidance.

The IMD outlook for rains for Monday and Tuesday is instructive. On Monday, heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast over Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. It would be heavy over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in association with the system formation.

Heavy to very heavy rain outlook

As for Tuesday, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh while it would be heavy rainfall at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Marathawada, Rayalaseema and Interior Karnataka.

In extended outlook from Wednesday to Friday said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over North Coastal Karnataka while it would be isolated heavy over the rest of North Peninsular India.

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