Arabica crop size may shrink

The unseasonal rains brought by Cyclone Vardah have impacted the ongoing harvest of Arabica coffee in the key growing regions of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and growers fear that it could shrink the crop’s size by at least a tenth.

Key coffee growing regions such as Kodagu, Chikmagaluru and the Shevaroys have been witnessing a steady drizzle over the past two days that has already triggered splits in ripened beans and berry droppings.

“We expect the crop to come down by about 10-20 per cent on account of splits and berry droppings,” said N Bose Mandanna, a large grower in Suntikoppa, near Madikeri. He added that there would be a loss of quality besides the physical crop loss.

When rain drops fall on the ready to harvest ripened bean, they split the fruit, resulting in the seed dropping on the ground. “It is expensive to pick the dropped beans and process them,” said DM Purnesh of Classic Synergy in Sakleshpur, Hassan. These rains are causing additional damage to the already forecast lower crop, he added.

The Coffee Board has pegged the 2016-17 arabica crop size at 1 lakh tonnes (lt) from the previous year’s 1.03 lt. Similarly, the robusta output is expected to be lower at 2.20 lt (2.44 lt).

While the growers see the rains hurting the crop size, Y Raghuramulu, Director, Central Coffee Research Station in Balehonnur, said it was too early to quantify the impact of the latest rains on the output.

The harvest of arabicas — the mild and premium coffee variety grown in the country — started about a week to 10 days ago and was expected to gain momentum in the weeks ahead. However, the prevailing rains and the cloudy weather have not only hampered the picking of beans, but also could affected the coffee drying process, said D Vinod Sivappa, a large grower in Kodagu and President of Upasi, the apex body of planters.

In the Shevaroys region of Tamil Nadu, besides the rain, the strong winds accompanying cyclone Vardah have uprooted trees, damaging coffee estates, said Vijayan Rajes, a planter in the region.

“We won’t be able to recover 5-10 per cent of the crop this year due to the berry droppings and splits caused by the rains,” he added. The rains have also impacted other coffee growing regions in Tamil Nadu such as the Palanis, Nilgiris and Anamalais.

Though the rains are seen affecting arabica output, they are seen brightening the prospects for robustas, which will come up for harvest in early January. “The rains are beneficial for both robusta and the pepper crop,” Mandanna said.

For domestic coffee growers, who are already struggling to deal with cash shortages in the harvest season, when wage payouts in cash typically go up for migrant labour, in addition to the latest rain, the prevailing volatility in the prices has aggravated their concerns.

Arabica prices in the New York terminal have slumped 18 per cent from around 174 cents per pound in early November to around 139 cents per pound on December 12.

Similarly, in the domestic scenario, farm gate prices of raw Arabica coffee, which ruled at around ₹9,100 per 50 kg bag, are now hovering between ₹8,300 and ₹8,600.

The sharp volatility in prices during the harvest season has made growers nervous. “We are not able to gauge the price movements,” said Rajes.

The global drop in prices is attributed to a host of factors, including conflicting crop reports emanating from major producer Brazil. Despite favourable rains over the country’s flowering period, which began in September, the 2017 crop forming on trees is expected to fall between 5 per cent and 20 per cent from this year’s harvest due to the natural biennial cycle of the trees, which alternates between big and small crops.

Also, the prices are influenced by the weakening currencies of Brazil and Colombia against the US dollar. Besides, the year-end holiday sentiment is seen influencing the trade.