Bay of Bengal under scanner for monsoon cues bl-premium-article-image

Vinson Kurian Updated - March 13, 2018 at 10:33 AM.

satelliteimage

The clouding over the Bay of Bengal as persisted overnight thanks to a cyclonic circulation in the north Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal.

That’s about the only saving grace on the monsoon front, as the seasonal rain system remained frustratingly locked-in across peninsular India for a third morning on Saturday after a delayed onset.

Low-pressure area

The Bay circulation may intensify as a low-pressure area and move north-northeast towards Myanmar over the next few days but take the rains along with it, too.

Normally, it takes these low-pressure areas to travel west-northwest and cross the southeast coast of the country to bring rains to east and east-central India.

That can happen only when the monsoon system is ‘fully developed’ over the mainland to comply with a horde of essential parameters; not with a truncated system obtaining concurrently.

IMD forecast

India Meteorological Department (IMD) does not expect rains to revive over the peninsula till June 16; but global models are less pessimistic.

They suggest that the build-up for the ‘next pulse’ might start building after the next two to three days to constitute a full-fledged revival of monsoon a couple of days after.

In this context, the Bay of Bengal circulation would be watched with keen interest for implications for the monsoon.

>vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

Published on June 9, 2012 06:29