Extremely severe cyclone Biparjoy may be bracing to make landfall near Jakhau port on the Gulf of Kutch coast in Gujarat in the next three days (around noon on Thursday), an update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday evening, even as the monstrous storm waited 420 km away over the North-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea.
Ports in Gujarat
Jakhau Port is at the western-most point of North-West Gujarat coast, 196 km by road to the West of Gandhidham and 136 km to Mundra, in the same direction along the Gulf of Kutch coast. Jamnagar Port lies 397 km away by road, but much shorter as the crow flies across to the South. Bhuj airport is only 97 km to the East of Jakhau Port. Outer rain bands from Biparjoy appeared to lash Naliya, Gandhidham, Jamnagar, Dwarka, and Junagadh on both sides of the Gulf of Kutch by Monday evening.
Also read: Cyclone Biparjoy: Gujarat deploys NDRF teams in districts likely to be affected
Monsoon stays sluggish
The US Climate Prediction Centre sees the monsoon staying active from June 14 to 20 from Mumbai to Kanyakumari along the coast, especially Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, but deficient over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, where it is due to arrive. It will remain active over the North-Eastern States.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) indicate Biparjoy, though weakened after landfall, will plough through North-West Gujarat, adjoining South-West Rajasthan and even South-East Rajasthan and generate heavy rain until June 22. Moderate to heavy rain is also forecast for the rest of Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, and the West Coast.
Pre-monsoon surplus
Apart from Rajasthan and Gujarat, entire West Coast from Mumbai to Kanyakumari will also get heavy rain with the heaviest reserved for Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala during this period. Rayalaseema, Telangana and adjoining southern and western parts of Maharashtra too will join the party. Heavy to very heavy rain is indicated for the North-Eastern States as well.
Pre-monsoon (March to May) rainfall has been above normal by 12 per cent for the country as a whole, with a huge surplus over North, North-West and West India. It is being argued that this did not allow the land to heat up to the required level and set up the temperature and pressure gradient for the monsoon to make a timely onset or spread out into the interior. Pre-monsoon rain was poor only along the West coast, the North-Eastern States and the islands.