Very severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy over East-Central Arabian Sea nearly stalled in the open waters 850 km West of Goa; 890 km South-West of Mumbai; 900 km South-South-West of Porbandar; and 1,180 km south of Karachi on Thursday afternoon. India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects it to intensify further and move North-North-West during the next three days. 

While the powerful cyclone doesn’t cause a direct threat to India’s West Coast, global models have not reached consensus on the direction of movement or place of landfall. While Oman to the North-West made only a passing mention in its weather outlook, the Pakistan Met Department said it will keep a watch on its behavioural dynamics over the next couple of days. 

To reach peak strength

The very severe cyclone (which is only a spin away from being called an extremely severe or super cyclone) was located 1,036 km to the South-East of Masirah Island off Oman. The IMD expects the storm to reach peak strength of 145-155 km/hr gusting to 170 km/hr from midnight on Thursday, and maintain those levels for at least 24 hours until midnight on Friday. 

Some global model suspect that Biparjoy will run into easterly winds high in the atmosphere and fight increasing wind shear. Shear refers to the change in wind speed and direction with height. Higher shear values affect the structure of the storm tower that rises to thousands of feet in height, and weaken it. The storm therefore may stall and probably fizzle out over the waters.

Gale wind speeds

On Wednesday afternoon, gale winds with speed reaching 135-145 km/hr gusting to 160 km/hr prevailed over East-Central and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea. They may increase and become 145-155 km/hr gusting to 170 km/hr from Thursday night. Squally weather with wind speeds of 35-45 km/hr gusting to 55 km/hr is likely along and off Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra coasts.

Pushpendra Johari, Senior Vice-President, Sustainability, RMSI, a global GIS consultancy, said the GFS and RMSI Impact Forecasting platform models suggest that Biparjoy will have minimal effect on the West Coast. Maximum sustained winds may range between 20-30 km/hr along and off Maharashtra-Gujarat coasts for next five days. Landfall location is still uncertain, as different models cite different choices, only to change them subsequently. 

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