Prospects of a productive wet spell over the rain-deficient Peninsula, beginning next week, have brightened with more corroborative evidence coming forth from weather models.
A storm tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre had alluded to this possibility in outlooks issued last week. On Tuesday, projections by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts as well as the India Met Department lent credence to the evolving scenario.
Accordingly, a low-pressure area may form just north of Chennai and move in a typical west-northwest track across the rest of the peninsula, likely ending up over the Konkan coast.
This is the most desirable path for onward movement for any rain-generating system originating in the Bay of Bengal inasmuch as it would bring the largest extent of land possible under cover.
It may cross land over Coastal Andhra Pradesh before checking into Rayalaseema, Telangana, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and North Interior Karnataka en route to Konkan-Goa.
An IMD outlook suggested that the system might undergo some intensification as it reaches Madhya Maharashtra and adjoining southern West Madhya Pradesh.
Cyclone threatWhat prevents it from gathering strength over land initially is the ‘drag’ effect from a projected cyclone over the East Indian Ocean (south of Bay of Bengal).
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, a low-pressure area over Bangladesh and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal held the monsoon in good shape over East India and adjoining North-East India.
The monsoon has been ‘vigorous’ over Gangetic West Bengal while being ‘active’ over Bihar and Jharkhand during the 24 hours ending in the morning.
The ‘low’ will likely stay put over Bengal, Sikkim, and Bihar for a day or two and start weakening into an elongated trough that links it with the Chennai-Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast.
It is at the southern end of this trough that the next ‘low’ as anticipated by various models would take shape, triggering rain for the South.
Formation of the trough along the coast will also bring rain along with it, growing gradually from the Bengal and Odisha coasts to the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts.
Heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls was reported from Bihar overnight on Tuesday while it was heavy to very heavy over over Jharkhand and Bengal and heavy over Odisha.
The IMD said that Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, Odisha, and the North-Eastern states would continue to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall variously over the next five days.