It is varyingly bright and cloudy out here in Thiruvananthapuram this morning on a day originally set as the ‘median’ among nine for likely onset of the monsoon.
Scattered clouds and steady west-northwesterly winds are the predominant weather features. The humidity level has reduced compared to the previous morning.
Forecasts indicate that the west-northwesterly flows may continue to hold at least until Tuesday, ruling out the onset for as many days.
The winds have to be west-southwesterly for the onset to happen. Prevailing winds from south of the equator adhere to this pattern only up to Maldives-Sri Lanka.
The result is that the progress of the monsoon has been stuck along the Colombo latitude for the fourth day on Friday.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had given a customary error margin of four days one either side of the median, which effectively constituted the onset window.
Onset window
The margin of four days in advance of the median have come and gone, and there is no signal of the onset happening on the ‘median’ day either.
IMD has also refrained from giving out an outlook on the expected lapse of time for the onset to happen, going forward.
This striking blackout of information on the last mile approach has been persisted with from the previous night’s weather bulletin.
This is unprecedented, observers say, and points to the uncertainty on how the onset dynamics would work themselves out over the next three to four days.