Bulbul intensifies into very severe cyclone

Cyclone Bulbul has intensified twice over into a very severe cyclone and India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expecting it to intensify even further ahead of landfall.

Here is the IMD bulletin link: https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/indian0806.pdf

This Friday noon, Bulbul was located over West-Central and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal 310 km South-South-East of Paradip; 450 km South-South-West of Sagar Islands; and 550 km South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

May weaken ahead of landfall

After intensifying till early Saturday morning, Bulbul may move to North and re-curve to North-East and cross Bengal-Bangladesh coasts between Sagar Islands and Khepupara across the Sunderbans around midnight.

While crossing, it would have weakened as a severe cyclone with maximum sustained wind speed of 110- 120 km/hr gusting to 135 km/hr.

According to private forecaster Skymet Weather, Bulbul will bear down on the plains of Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh on Sunday morning. It has forecast heavy to very heavy rains and strong winds along coastal Odisha and Bengal.

Rainfall alerts issued

Odisha : Light to moderate rainfall is forecast at most places over the north coastal districts of Odisha with isolated heavy falls over Puri, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Jagatsinghpur on Friday.

Light to moderate rainfall at most places over the north coastal districts of Odisha with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur; and with heavy falls at isolated places over Jajpur district on Saturday.

Bengal : Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls over North and South 24 Parganas and East Medinipur districts on Friday.

Light to moderate rainfall at most places over the coastal districts of Bengal with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (above 20 cm in 24 hours) at isolated places over North and South 24 Parganas, East Medinipur, and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly on Saturday.

Light to moderate rainfall at most places very likely over the coastal districts of Bengal with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over North and South 24 Parganas and Nadiya; and heavy falls at isolated places over East Medinipur district on Sunday.

North-Eastern States : Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls over Mizoram and Tripura on Saturday; and over South Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram on Sunday.

Wind warning

Bay of Bengal : Gale winds with speed reaching 130-140 km/hr gusting to 155 km/hr were prevailing over the West-Central and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal around the very severe cyclone system centre by Friday noon.

These are likely to increase to 150-160 km/hr gusting to 175 km/hr by Friday night over the North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal for subsequent 12 hours and decrease gradually thereafter.

Odisha coast : Strong winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr prevails along and off the Odisha coast. These were expected to increase to squally wind speeds reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr by Friday afternoon along and off Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Balasore and Bhadrak districts.

Gale wind speeds reaching 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr are likely from around Saturday noon along and off Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Balasore and Bhadrak districts for subsequent 12 hours and decrease thereafter.

The Puri and Ganjam districts are likely to experience squally wind speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr from Friday afternoon until Saturday noon.

Bengal coast : Squally wind speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr may commence over the Bengal coast from Friday night and increase to gale wind speeds reaching 110-120 km/hr gusting to 135 km/hr from Saturday midnight to Sunday forenoon along and off East Medinipur, and North and South 24 Parganas.

Squally winds with speed reaching 40-60 to 70 km/hr are also likely over adjoining districts of West Medinipur, Howrah and Hooghly during the same period.

Sea condition

The sea condition is rough to very rough (13-20 ft wave height) along and off the Odisha and West Bengal coasts and is likely to become high to very high (20-30 ft) on Saturday and Sunday.

Rough to very rough over the North Bay of Bengal till Friday evening and gradually becoming very high to phenomenal (30-46 ft) over the North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal from this (Friday) evening and would last into Saturday night.

The conditions will be very rough to very high over the North-East Bay of Bengal from Saturday morning into early Sunday morning.

The sea condition is phenomenal (46 ft and above) over West-Central and adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal around the centre of the very severe cyclone system on Friday itself. It will be phenomenal to very high (46-30 ft) over these areas into Saturday as well.

Storm Surge

Storm surge of about 1.0 to 2.0 metre height above the astronomical tide may inundate low lying areas of South and North 24 Parganas and 0.5-1.0 metre height above the astronomical tide may inundate low lying areas of east Medinipur during the time of landfall.

Fishermen Warning

The IMD has advised total suspension of fishing operations over the Odisha-West Bengal coasts till Sunday forenoon. They are advised not to venture into the West-Central and adjoining North-West Bay of Bengal on both Friday and Saturday; over the North Bay of Bengal on Saturday and Sunday.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the North-West Bay of Bengal along and off the Odisha-Bengal coasts from Friday to Sunday.