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With a projected decline in cotton output in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Haryana, the cotton crop in India for 2022-23 is seen lower by 4.25 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) at 339.75 lakh bales, against previous year’s 307.05 lakh bales.
In its latest crop estimate for November, the CAI has projected cotton output to decline in Punjab (0.75 lakh bales), Haryana (1 lakh), Rajasthan (0.5 lakh), Andhra Pradesh (1 lakh) and Karnataka (1 lakh).
The CAI has retained its cotton consumption estimate at 300 lakh bales against last year’s 318 lakh bales, while it has projected exports at 30 lakh bales — lower by 13 lakh bales from the earlier projection of 43 lakh bales.
The lower export estimate comes amidst reduced cotton prices. The spot cotton rates for GUJ ICS-105 Fine 29mm variety stood at ₹63,600 per candy (each of 356 kg), which is lower than ₹65,800 recorded last year. As per CAI estimates, the total arrivals between October and November are estimated at 50.29 lakh bales, of which about 1 lakh bales of cotton is estimated to have been shipped till November 30.
The CAI has maintained import estimates of 12 lakh bales which is lower by 2 lakh bales from 14 lakh bales in the previous crop year 2021-22. Total imports so far in the current season is estimated at 2.50 lakh bales.
Total cotton supply for the year is estimated at 383.64 including 12 lakh bales of imports, the crop size of 339.75 lakh bales and the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales.
On the demand side, CAI has projected mill consumption for the current season lower at 280 lakh bales as against 293 lakh bales last year, SSI consumption of 15 lakh bales (19 lakh bales) and non-mill consumption of 5 lakh bales (6 lakh bales last year). The closing stock for the season, after 30 lakh bales of exports, is estimated at 53.64 lakh bales higher than 31.89 lakh bales of estimated closing stock in the previous year.
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