The Cotton Association of India (CAI), the apex trade body in its first estimates has pegged the 2023-24 crop size at 295.10 lakh bales of 170 kg each, the lowest in the past 15 years. The estimates for 2023-24 are down by 7.5 per cent over the previous year’s 318.90 lakh bales.
“After 2008-09, this is the lowest Indian crop” said Atul Ganatra, President, CAI attributing the fall in output to the impact of prevailing El Nino and also the 5.5 per cent reduction in the cotton area. CAI expects the yields to reduce by 5-20 per cent across different producing States due to the unfavourable weather conditions. The trade body which finalised the crop estimates in its recent meeting expects to take stock of the situation in its next meeting on November 15.
In its first advance estimates released last week, the Agriculture Ministry had projected the cotton output for 2023-24 at 316.6 lakh bales of 170 kg each, against the previous year’s final estimates of 336.6 lakh bales.
Import
CAI sees higher imports of cotton at 22 lakh bales over previous year’s 12.50 lakh bales. Including the current crop size of 295.10 lakh bales and opening stocks of 28.90 lakh bales, the total availability of cotton during the 2023-24 season has been pegged at 346 lakh bales, lower than previous year’s 355.40 lakh bales. The total domestic demand during the 2023-24 season is estimated by CAI at 311 lakh bales. This includes the consumption of mills at 280 lakh bales and consumption by the small scale industries (SSI) at 15 lakh bales. The non-mill consumption is estimated at 16 lakh bales.
CAI has estimated the surplus during the 2023-24 season at 35 lakh bales, while projecting exports of 14 lakh bales( 15.50 lakh bales last year). As per the cotton balance sheet, CAI sees the closing stocks at 21 lakh bales for the 2023-24 season, down from previous year’s 28.9 lakh bales.
In the North Zone that comprise of key producing States of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, CAI has pegged the crop at 43 lakh bales, same as last year. In the Central Zone, comprising of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the production estimated by CAI is 179.60 lakh bales, down from last year’s 194.62 lakh bales. Also in the South Zone comprising of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu the output is seen lower at 67.50 lakh bales from previous year’s 74.85 lakh bales.