Chennai must not let down its guard just yet, say weather models

A few global models have suggested that the wet North Tamil Nadu coast should not let down its guard against fickle weather with rain/thundershowers likely to return during the rest of the week.

There is no organised weather system (low-pressure area/depression) in the making, but the threat in the form of remnant thunderstorms from a prevailing well-marked low-pressure area is not yet over.

Some of these storms have come back to hit northern-most tip of Sri Lanka on Tuesday evening. Some others are seen prowling the South-West Bay of Bengal within striking distance of the Tamil Nadu coast.

There are also fresh cloud formations beginning to consolidate around the Sumatra Island, just to the south of Andaman Sea.

This is exactly the area of genesis of the predecessor ‘low’ that went on to intensify as a well-marked ‘low’ and drench both Sri Lanka and the entire Tamil Nadu coast.

The US Climate Prediction Centre has pointed to the possibility of the stretch between Chennai and Puducherry coming in for a very wet spell during the ongoing week ending on November 22.

The Eastern coast of Sri Lanka too is seen getting a hit while the interior would witness moderate showers. As for Tamil Nadu, the rains are likely to get confined to the coast and its immediate hinterland.

An experimental storm tracker employed by the US Climate Prediction Centre sees a likely cyclonic circulation (not amounting to a ‘low’) getting embedded in an easterly wave.

The wave is headed towards Sri Lanka and the South-East coast of Tamil Nadu initially, but thunderstorms getting generated as the wave hits coast may propel towards the North Tamil Nadu coast.

Meanwhile, the India Met Department has forecast rain or thundershowers at many places over South Peninsular India and at a few places over the rest of the peninsula from November 22 to 24.

The 24 hours ending Tuesday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall being recorded at a few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and isolated over North Tamil Nadu.

Among the major stations recording rain (in cm) were Kavali-16; Nellore-12; Machilipatnam-9; Narsapur and Bapatla-7 each; and Chennai and Tirupathi-6 each.