The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology is closely watching the seas to the South and South-West, as signs of building churn became evident in the South Bay of Bengal.
The country's Met office said in its 10-day outlook that a low-pressure area may form over the Andaman Sea and the South Bay of Bengal, areas which fall under the jurisdiction of India Met Department (IMD).
The IMD, on its part, has already located a preparatory cyclonic circulation lurking in the South Andaman Sea, which would in due course build critical mass to become a 'low'.
The prevailing weather in the seas ranges from partly cloudy to cloudy over the Andaman Sea and South Bay of Bengal and partly cloudy elsewhere in the larger Bay, the Myanmar Met Office said.
The latest to join the watch for the 'low' is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which, unlike the Indian or US agencies, does not see a strong system building in the Bay.
The European Centre saw a conventional low-pressure area nestling by the Myanmar coast around May 4 and disappearing over the rugged terrain the very next day.
In contrast, the ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction has forecast a stronger system impacting the region around Yangon on South-West Myanmar coast. This ensemble model goes on to suggest that after the Bay system dies out over Myanmar coast, it will be the turn of the Arabian Sea to host a circulation.
Churn in Arabian Sea?
The system in the Arabian Sea is seen as emerging in the build-up to the South-West monsoon, but its projected track away from India's West Coast could disrupt associated flows and disorient them.
In the past, cyclones have formed in the Arabian Sea during the monsoon consolidation phase as flows got directed to India's coast, only to be redirected and sent back instead to Yemen/Oman coasts.
According to the US agency's forecast, the formation of the system in the Arabian Sea and its movement away from India's coast should take place over the next 12 to 15 days.
This would be only 10 days short of the monsoon onset date of May 25-26 (earlier by a week this year) on Kerala coast, as predicted by eminent researcher PV Joseph, himself a former IMD director.
Meanwhile, the summer shower regime (from March 1 till date) has continued to favour the South Peninsula with a surplus even as the rest of the country is witnessing varying deficit.