The Coffee Board estimates a 6.71 per cent rise in production at 3.22 lakh tonnes for the crop year 2011-12 beginning October compared with the final estimate of the crop this year. If the production finally turns out to be as projected, it will be a record crop.
Of the total projection, made after a post-blossom estimate, arabica production is estimated to be 1,04,525 tonnes and robusta 2,17,725 tonnes. Arabica production is estimated to increase 11 per cent (10,385 tonnes) over the final estimate this year, while robusta is expected to go up by 4.75 per cent (9,865 tonnes).
Karnataka may account for 69 per cent of the production again at 13,895 tonnes, followed by Kerala at 17 per cent (3,475 tonnes), Tamil Nadu 9 per cent (1,890 tonnes) and non-traditional areas 5 per cent (985 tonnes) compared with last year's estimate.
The Coffee Board, in a release, attributes the higher projection to favourable weather conditions. Well-distributed rainfall last year helped in moisture retention for a longer period which, in turn, helped in production of more bearing wood for the crop during the current season.
Further, the blossom and backing showers are reported to be normal in almost all coffee growing zones in Karnataka, though certain pockets experienced deficient rainfall. Good weather, crop conditions and relatively stable prices encouraged better husbandry practices, helping to invigorate production in Karnataka zones.
State-wise estimates
Taking into account these factors, the Coffee Board estimates crop forecast for Karnataka at 82,250 tonnes of arabica and 1,45,425 tonnes of robusta, totalling 2,27,675 tonnes.
Kerala coffee zones also have received adequate and timely blossom and backing showers. No adverse effect on crop was reported in coffee-growing districts in Kerala. Hence, the post blossom estimate for the 2011-12 is placed at 69,125 tonnes, which is an increase of 5.29 per cent (3,475 MT) over last year's estimate.
Similarly, Tamil Nadu may also show an increase in crop (1,890 tonnes) during the current season, mainly because of the biennial bearing nature of arabica as last year was an off-year. Blossom and backing showers were reported to be normal, resulting in an increase in crop.
Accounting this, the post blossom forecast of Tamil Nadu is placed at 18,540 tonnes, an increase of 11.35 per cent over the previous year's final estimate of 16,650 tonnes.
In non-traditional areas of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and the North-East region, the post blossom forecast is placed at 6,910 tonnes against the previous final estimate of 5,920 tonnes. The higher forecast may come mainly from Andhra Pradesh, followed by Orissa due to increase in bearing area.
Karnataka
All three districts, Kodagu, Chikmagalur and Hassan, are expected to show an increase in production over the previous year.
Major increase in crop is expected to come from Kodagu district with 8,255 tonnes, mainly accruing from robusta (6,535 tonnes). While in Chikmagalur (4,090 tonnes) and Hassan (1,550 tonnes) districts, the increase may mainly accrue from arabica (Chikmagalur 4,500 tonnes and Hassan 1,450 tonnes) over the previous year's final estimate.