Coffee production is unlikely to exceed three lakh tonnes this season that began this month, according to growers, particularly in Karnataka. The new crop’s harvest is set to begin in a week to 10 days.

“We don’t think coffee production will cross 2.85 lakh tonnes this year. This is because the crop was affected by a prolonged dry period during April and continuous rainfall in the growing regions in July,” said Karnataka Planters’ Association Chairman Nishant Gurjer.

Karnataka

Karnataka accounts for over 70 per cent of total coffee production in the country.

In its post-blossom estimate released in July, the board pegged production at a record 3.47 lakh tonnes comprising 1.11 lakh tonnes of arabica and 2.36 lakh tonnes of robusta. This is against last year’s 3.18 lakh tonnes.

The US Department of Agriculture has estimated the crop at 3.02 lakh tonnes.

estimate process

“Our estimate was made on the basis of the blossoms in coffee plants in the early part of the year. We will make another estimate after the monsoon. We are carrying out the estimate and hope to come out with our projections in November,” said Coffee Board Chairman Jawaid Akhtar.

Last month, Akhtar told the United Planters’ Association of Southern India (Upasi) annual meet at Coonoor that the board could lower the production by at least 10 per cent.

Coffee growers say that robusta production may be around two lakh tonnes and arabica may not exceed 85,000 tonnes.

In April, coffee growing regions, mainly Kodagu in Karnataka, did not get any rainfall for almost a month. Further, the temperatures also hovered at 39-40 degree Celsius, a rarity in the region.

In July, Kodagu received a record rainfall of 522 mm.

“In some places such as Naladi, the rainfall was five times the normal. It has resulted in plants developing wet feet that result in the roots falling into some sort of coma,” said Bose Mandanna, a planter in Kodagu and former Vice-Chairman of Coffee Board. Many planters, who delayed spraying of insecticides and pesticides, were caught napping by the continuous rain.

“I was lucky that in our plantations we completed spraying in June.

“But a majority of planters could not complete the spraying, leaving the plants unprotected,” said A.K. Bhandari, former president of Upasi.

Growers are of the view that board’s estimates are a little unscientific.

“Over the last few years, the board’s estimates are being regularly revised downwards,” said Gurjer.

Last year, the board initially projected a crop of 3.25 lakh tonnes before scaling it down to 3.14 lakh tonnes and finally pegging it at 3.18 lakh tonnes (98,600 tonnes arabica and 2.19 lakh tonnes robusta).

The Karnataka Planters Association had projected the output at 2.95 lakh tonnes.

“We have our system in place to make estimates and we make post-blossom and post-monsoon.

The situation changes between the two estimates,” said Akhtar.

But, growers have a different view. “I think arabica production in some estates will be lower than what officials have projected. Plants in many estates have been replanted after they were affected by the white stem borer. In some estates, the output could be only 50 per cent of what the board has projected,” said Mandanna.

On the other hand, this year’s unusual weather pattern has left growers worried over next year’s crop.

“The July rainfall not only resulted in wet feet but plants have shed their leaves. This will affect production next season too,” said Mandanna.

Usually, some 15-20 days of rainfall is followed by 10 days of sunshine helping the plant complete its chemical process such as photosynthesis for growth. The continuous rainfall has affected this process.

“At least, from now on, we need continuous sunshine so that plants can recover their growth process,” said Bhandari.

But the sunshine should be followed by rains during the second half of March next year for an accelerated growth, say growers.

“Besides leaves dropping, high winds have caused damage in many estates in the growing areas. It will take at least a year to recover,” said Gurjer.

The Coffee Board feels it is too early to make any conclusion about next year’s crop.

“We think it is too early to talk about next year’s crop because basically, the developments are climate-related,” said Akhtar.

( The writer was in Kodagu at the invitation of Tata Starbucks)

> subramani.mancombu@thehindu.co.in

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