India’s coffee production is likely to remain flat at three lakh tonnes in the 2011-12 season starting October this year.
The country is estimated to have produced 2.99 lakh tonnes in the current 2010-11 season (October-September), according to the Coffee Board’s post-monsoon forecast.
In the post-blossom estimate, the board had pegged the output at 3.08 lakh tonnes for the current year. The board will shortly release the post-blossom estimate for the 2011-12 season.
“The post-blossom estimate for coffee is likely to be about 3 lakh tonnes. The ratio of robusta and arabica is 60-40 per cent,” a senior coffee board official said.
Production of robusta is likely to fall to about 1.8 lakh tonnes in the next season from this year’s 2.04 lakh tonnes due to untimely and inadequate rains during March-April and also because of 2011-12 being an off-season.
Arabica output could increase to 1.2 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 season against 95,000 tonnes this year as next year would be the peak season for the premium bean.
The growers association, too, has estimated robusta crop at around 1.8 lakh tonnes, but differs on the forecast of arabica.
According to planters, the board’s estimate for robusta during 2011-12 at 1.8 lakh tonnes is in line with their expectations as the output in the next season is expected to go down due to the season being an off-year and because of patchy and inadequate blossom rains.
However, they pointed out that the board’s estimate for arabica at 1.2 lakh tonnes does not match their expectations.
Arabica potential is expected to rise as the next season is the peak season, but with patchy and inadequate blossom rains, production of the premium brew is expected to be below potential at around one lakh tonnes, the planters said.
According to the board officials and planters, the area for coffee would more or less remain the same.
Arabica was cultivated in 1.93 lakh hectares, while area under robusta plantations stood at 2.06 lakh hectares in 2010-11, as per the Coffee Board data.