The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) on Tuesday lowered its global price outlook for cotton compared with its projections in December 2022.
In its May outlook, ICAC has projected the season’s average price forecast range between 96.1 cents and 111.3 cents, with a midpoint of 102.77 cents per pound. This is lower from the midpoint of 115 cents projected in December 2022.
A month ago, ICAC data scientist Matthew Looney said Indian cotton deliveries were far behind historical levels for that point of the season and suspected that farmers were withholding their cotton in the hope of better prices.
This was reflected in the cotton prices in the domestic and international markets. Processed ginned cotton of benchmark 29mm length was quoted at ₹68,500 per candy of (356 kg each) on December 2, 2022. However, as arrivals started picking up, prices started correcting and were last quoted at ₹61,800 on Tuesday.
ICE Cotton Futures quoted at 83.2 cents on December 2, 2022, while it is quoting at 81.34 cents now.
In its observations about whether Indian farmers’ have started releasing the stocks, ICAC said, “Whether they saw the recent, slight stabilisation of prices and decided to take advantage, or whether they simply couldn’t hold the cotton any longer, it’s impossible to know. But whatever the reason, the pace of arrivals in India has surged in the last month or so.”
Meanwhile, raw cotton arrivals in Gujarat markets continued. At Rajkot APMC market in Saurashtra, arrivals were recorded at 110 tonnes with price quoting in the range of ₹7,500-₹8,300 per quintal.