The seed industry is buoyant on the prospect of a good year in the cotton sector on the back of high prices for the fibre that farmers received in the last two seasons to be aided by a normal monsoon as predicted by the Indian Meterological Department (IMD).

“Everyone is very positive about this year as cotton is in great demand because of lower production. The domestic textile industry has been demanding more and more cotton,” said Ram Kaundinya, Director-General of the Federation of Seed Industry of India (FSII). He said cottonseeds demand may grow to 4.8-4.9 crore packets (of 450 gm each) in the current season from 4.2 crore packets last year.

As two acres of land need three packets of cottonseeds, the sales of 4.9 crore packets (equivalent to 2.2 lakh quintals) may be enough to cover 13 million hectares (mh). Last year, the cotton acreage was 12.75 mh. If the seeds saved by farmers are added to the coverage in the ensuing kharif season, the area may increase by 10 per cent minimum, industry experts said.

The IMD has predicted normal monsoon rainfall of 96 per cent of the long period average of 87 cm in 2023 and has also ruled out any disruption of rainfall due to a possible emergence of El Nino.

Kaundinya said the propagation of High Density Planting System (HDPS), where nearly three-times more plants grow than conventional system, it will require 10 packets for every two acres of land. “It is at pilot stage and some target has been fixed to cover in upcoming kharif,” he said adding the seeds requirement would not improve immediately.

Farmer expectations

According to Agriculture Ministry data, India’s cotton production increased to 33.72 million bales (of 170 kg each bale) in the 2022-23 crop year (July-June) against 31.12 million bales a year ago. However, traders and a couple of agencies are pegging the production lower.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated India’s cotton exports to decline by 5,00,000 bales this month to 1.8 million (US bales of 227.72 kg or 23.05 lakh Indian bales of 170 kg), roughly equal to its import forecast. Industry experts have projected export to be within 20 lakh bales during 2022-23 (October-September).

This season, farmers have been parting with their produce slowly expecting better prices. Their expectations stemmed from the record prices of ₹12,000 a quintal they fetched last season for kapas (unprocessed cotton).

Currently, kapas is fetching about ₹8,000 in agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in Gujarat against the minimum support price of ₹6,080. Processed cotton or lint prices are currently quoted at ₹62,550 a candy (356 kg) for the benchmark Shankar-6 variety.

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