Cotton sowing 95% higher but overall acreage may be same as last year, say experts

Sowing of cotton may be up 95 per cent, according to Agriculture Ministry data, but experts are not bullish about much higher acreage overall than last year.

Data showed that acreage of cotton, among the main Kharif crops, stood at 8.78 million hectares (mh) last week, against 4.51 mh at the same time in 2014-15. Compared with the week before, acreage was up 46 per cent as of July 10.

“Let’s not get excited. If you compare it to the same juncture in 2013-14, it’s lower by about a percentage point. Overall, sowing may be the same or a little lower than last year,” said Dhiren Sheth, President, Cotton Association of India.

Sheth was alluding to the late monsoon onset last year which had delayed sowing across key States such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, where sowing traditionally takes place in late June and early July.

Most States, except some Northern ones and Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, have reported higher cotton acreage. In Maharashtra, the country’s largest cotton producer, almost 3 mh have been covered, from 835,000 hectares last year.

Cotton has also been sown over 2.1 mh in Gujarat, the second-largest producer, from 966,000 ha at the same time in 2014-15.

Steady rain through June and fears of a dry spell after the first week of July appears to have prompted more planting since the crop can thrive even with less moisture.

“Farmers are planting more cotton due to chances of low rainfall even if returns are low. In Telangana, for example, there’s been no constant rain for the last 15 days and sowing is up 5 to 10 per cent,” said B. Ravinder Reddy, President, Telangana Cotton Millers & Traders Welfare Association.

Prices shot up marginally in the beginning of July on a spurt in export demand but have since stabilised. The benchmark Shankar-6 variety was selling between ₹33,000 and ₹34,500/candy (355.6 kg) as on Monday and is likely to remain at this level through 2015-16 as well.

“Cotton prices were low last year and will continue to be around Rs 34,000-34,500/candy, which is higher than global price of Rs 31,000-31,500/candy. Acreage may rise marginally,” said DK Nair, Secretary General, Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.

Prices are likely to be pressured, with China unlikely to import Indian cotton in the near future and surplus domestic stock.