Tuesday’s depression over east-central Bay of Bengal intensified twice over during the evening to night to become named cyclone Dana on Wednesday morning over the same region, and lay about 520 km south-east of Paradip (Odisha); 600 km south-southeast of Sagar Island (West Bengal); and 610 km south-southeast of Khepupara (Bangladesh) in the afternoon.

Landfall as severe cyclone

Dana, a name contributed by Qatar, is very likely to move north-west and intensify into a severe cyclone over north-west Bay by early Thursday morning and cross north Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Puri and Sagar Island, close to Bhitarkanika and Dhamara (Odisha), during the intervening night of Thursday and Friday morning as a severe cyclone with a wind speed of 100-110 km/hr gusting to 120 km/hr.

Dense cloud cover

Dense cloud cover associated with the cyclone and packing thunderstorms and high winds covered two-thirds of the Bay northward from west-central Bay on Wednesday morning. Outer cloud bands had reached the Sunderbans across the Indo-Bangladesh international border with the heaviest of rains to the south of Khulna in Bangladesh. International weather trackers are of the view the low vertical wind shear values (change in wind speed and direction with height) and elevated sea-surface temperatures will ensure steady development of the cyclone with no western disturbance predicted to cross its path.

Heavy rain forecast

India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast light to moderate rain at most places over Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsingpur, Puri and Khorda, districts of Odisha commencing from Wednesday evening with heavy rainfall (07-11 cm) at isolated places. It would be heavy to very heavy at a few places and extremely heavy (≥ 21 cm) at isolated places over Baleswar, Mayurbhanj, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsingpur, Kendujhar, Jajpur, Cuttack, Dhenkanal, Khorda and Puri districts on Thursday and Friday as the projected severe cyclone approaches coast for landfall.

Over neighbouring West Bengal, light to moderate rain is likely at most places over the districts of South and North 24 Parganas,; East and West Medinipur, Jhargram, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata and Bankura on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain was forecast at isolated places on Wednesday and heavy to very heavy at a few places with extremely heavy rain at isolated places. Adjoining south Jharkhand too will receive light to moderate rain at most places with heavy rain at isolated places on Thursday, and heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places on Friday.

North-east India outlook

Over the north-east, light to moderate rain is likely at many places for next four days over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura accompanied with isolated thunderstorms and lightning. It will be light at isolated places during the subsequent three days. Light to moderate rain is likely at Isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh during next seven days and isolated heavy over on Wednesday; and over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on both Wednesday and Thursday. 

Rain for southern states

Towards the south, isolated heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; and Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe on Wednesday; and over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on Friday. Light to moderate rain is likely at many places accompanied with isolated thunderstorms and lightning over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal; Kerala & Mahe; and costal and south interior Karnataka during next three days while being light at isolated places over subsequent four days. It will be light to moderate at isolated places very likely over rest of the region during the week.

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