In a daring reversal of its own cyclone predictions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) retracted forecast outlook with respect to a deep depression over south-west Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu-Sri Lanka coasts and has resumed watch for a full-blown cyclone Fengal towards this afternoon.

This had come after it pared down its outlook successively through the previous (Thursday) night and into this (Friday) morning, when it said the deep depression was likely weakening over the waters and may cross the north Tamil Nadu with a whimper, at best in the form as a depression. 

To its credit, it had indeed pointed to the possibility of a small window opening from Thursday night to Friday morning or the deep depression to intensify as a cyclone. But it had inexplicably closed this window to the system, which in return chose to blow up on the forecasters’ face with a vengeance. 

Hardly ever has the IMD botched its forecast statement with respect to a building cyclone; in fact, it has claimed a pole position among global forecasters by having successfully tracked down evolution, track and landfall of a number of Bay/Arabian Sea cyclones during the past decade. Friday proved a rare aberration.

This had come after a group of amateur weather bloggers in Tamil Nadu called out formation of the cyclone after noticing a sudden burst of activity around the core of the deep depression from early Friday morning.

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