The very severe cyclonic storm ‘Thane' over south-west Bay of Bengal has hit the home stretch in line to wallop the Tamil Nadu coast by early Friday morning.
‘Thane' might let off some steam but would bear down with significant intensity on the Nagapattinam-Puducherry belt, according to consensus model forecasts, including of India Meteorological Department (IMD).
SITTING DUCK
On Thursday afternoon, ‘Thane' was located equidistant from Puducherry and Chennai, just 180 km into the sea respectively to the east and south-east.
The Nagapattinam belt on the Tamil Nadu coast is known to be a sitting duck for approaching storms, and could likely witness storm surges and vast inundation.
In fact, the Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (Incois) has warned of high wind waves in the range of 2.5 to 11.0 meters until Friday midnight along the Nagapattinam to Pulicat coast.
The higher waves may occur between Nagapattinam to Pondicherry. Alert for high wind waves between 2.5- 8.0 meters (maximum forecasted height) are also valid for the Andhra Pradesh coast for the same period from Ramayyapatnam to Kalingapattanam.
HEAVY RAINS
A weather warning from the IMD said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would lash a few places with extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) at one or two places over north Tamil Nadu (including Chennai) and Puducherry during the next two days.
According to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, at least 1.2 million people risk being affected by the storm, with associated surge of the sea making life difficult for another 79,000.
Rain or thundershowers has been forecast for most places over Tamil Nadu on Friday, at many places over Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Later, the rains may scale up over Kerala and Lakshadweep, according to an IMD forecast.
TRACK OF REMNANT
But other models are suggesting the bulk of the rains would happen to the north-northeast as the remnant of ‘Thane' would be steered along by an approaching western disturbance.
In fact, the IMD sees rain or thundershowers breaking out at a few places over central and adjoining east and north peninsular India from Sunday, as the New Year dawns.
Meanwhile in the north, the inbound western disturbance would set off dense fog conditions over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.