Sunday’s deep depression was in the ‘act of crossing’ the Tamil Nadu coast near Puducherry, a process that was at least three hours from full closure at the time of going to press on Monday evening.
Earlier in the afternoon, the system was located waiting 40 km out into the sea, within striking distance of the Puducherry coast, an India Met Department update said.
Among the heaviest rainfall reported (in cm) was from Chennai, Karaikal-17 each; Nagapattinam, Nungambakkam, Cuddalore-14; and Puducherry-13.
Satellite pictures showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds hanging heavy over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema; Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, the Comorin region, and South and Central Bay of Bengal.
The forecast for the next four to five days indicated that the rainfall belt would move West-Northwest from Tamil Nadu in track with the movement of the weakening deep depression.
Cyclone ‘Megh’ Rain will thus spread out to Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala in phases, the Met said.
Rains will also cast a spell over interior of Tamil Nadu (especially the North) as the causative system moves over the region. Rains will be particularly heavy in the interior on Tuesday and Thursday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suspects that the weakened system will step out into the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast by Wednesday and gain some traction.
It may show signs of re-generation over Lakshadweep but would mostly fade out by Saturday. Two predecessor cyclones ‘Chapala’ and ‘Megh’ have drained the seas of the energy needed to host a new one.
Fresh Bay storm? ‘Megh’ too went on to become an extremely severe cyclone in quick succession after ‘Chapala,’ and is eyeing the Yemen coast, yet again, for making a landfall as weakened cyclone.
Meanwhile, the European Centre is of the view that both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea may wake up to fresh activity next week.
An experimental US storm tracker concurred saying that this would be triggered by storm genesis in the Bay which would push a wave of rainfall into Tamil Nadu coast between November 14 and 17.
It would send in a ‘monsoon pulse’ into the Comorin region, which would gain strength as a likely storm over Lakshadweep by November 19, up to which forecasts were available.
Back in Tamil Nadu, rain would lash the entire coast starting from the North, and spread along the coast towards North-Northeast (Coastal Andhra Pradesh-Odisha stretch) as well as the interior.