KHARIF WATCH. Delayed planting, poor rain may hurt rice yield

Delayed planting and poor rainfall distribution can play a spoiler in production of rice for 2015-16 even if acreage in Kharif, the main season for the cereal, continues to edge up than last year with 86 per cent of sowing completed.

As on August 21, rice had been planted on about 333.7 lakh hectares (lh), about half a percentage point greater than the 332.1 lh during the corresponding period last year.

While sowing in Uttar Pradesh has touched 59 lh, beyond the normal area of 57.1 lh, acreage has declined in major producing States such as West Bengal and Odisha. Coverage of rice in the former State has slipped by almost 5 lh to 33.2 lh, while planting in Odisha has fallen by 3 lh to 28.1 lh – the lowest at this stage in the last five years.

“Absolute rainfall may look good but distribution and frequency is important since sufficient water availability is important for paddy cultivation. In Odisha and West Bengal, the distribution has been poor in many districts,” said Trilochan Mohapatra, Director, Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI), adding that rainfall in September will determine productivity.

An El Nino-hit South-West monsoon has resulted in 10 per deficient rainfall between June 1 and August 24.

While precipitation in Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha are excess and normal, respectively, distribution has been an issue, said experts. The Indian Meteorological Department has estimated a 11 per cent deficit in precipitation in August after a 16 per cent surplus in June and a 17 per cent shortfall in July.

Mohapatra said that transplanting was still going on and the delay was a concern as it would affect productivity . While there is no estimate of how much area has been sown late, he said that choosing the right varieties at this stage was crucial to prevent a drop in yield.

“High yield will be a problem if long duration varieties are picked. It’s too early to quantify any possible drop in production, assuming there is one, maybe one or two per cent on account of delayed planting. Sowing will continue till September 1,” he added.

Paddy sowings have been severely hit due to the erratic monsoon in Andhra. Though the Godavari Delta area is relatively better off with 60-70 per cent sowings, the Krishna Delta area that depends on the Srisailam and Nagarjunasagar Reservoirs fared very bad. “Farmers in the Krishna delta generally grow paddy on 12 lakh acres. But they could go for sowing in only 25 per cent. That the area received only one rain during June 18 to August 18 shows the gravity of the situation,” Yerneni Nagendranath, President of Andhra Pradesh Rytaanga Samaakhya . The situation in Telangana is no different.

BV Krishna Rau, Managing Director of Kakinada-based Pattabhi Agro Foods, expected a clearer picture to emerge in a few weeks and did not expect a significant production drop.

“Deficient rains in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and parts of Karnataka could have some impact on the crop prospects. However, it should not be a big concern as some other States like Chhattisgarh have seen an increase in acreage and that could make up for the shortfall,” he said. .

The El Nino phenomenon is likely to affect production in Thailand and Vietnam, which along with India accounts for almost 70 per cent of global rice trade. “A drop in production in other major exporters will benefit Indian exporters. However, traders are unlikely to enter into contracts with the slide in the rupee and will wait till the rupee-dollar balance stabilises,” said Tejinder Narang, a grains trade analyst.

(With inputs from our Bengaluru, Hyderabad bureaus)