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A monsoon depression has formed as forecast over south-west Bay of Bengal, which lay on Tuesday morning closest to land at 340 km south-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka); 630 km south-southeast of Nagapattinam; 750 km south-southeast of Puducherry; and 830 km south-southeast of Chennai. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it is likely to move north-northwest and intensify into a deep depression into Tuesday night, just short of being classified into a cyclone.
Heavy rain forecast
The IMD has forecast has isolated heavy to very heavy rain at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry on Tuesday and Wednesday; heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places on Thursday; and heavy at Isolated places on Friday and Saturday. Over Kerala & Mahe, it would be heavy at isolated places from Tuesday to Thursday; and over south coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, from Tuesday to Friday.
Light to moderate rain is forecast accompanied with isolated thunderstorms and lightning is forecast at a fews places over coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry from Tuesday to Friday; over Kerala & Mahe on Tuesday and Wednesday; and over south coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam as well as Rayalaseema from Tuesday to Friday. The light to moderate rain may spread out to over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Friday and Saturday with isolated heavy rainfall on Thursday, the IMD said.
Morning satellite picture
Morning satellite pictures on Tuesday morning showed a cloud/rain cover over large parts of the South Peninsula with moderate showers indicated over Marakkanam, Puducherry, Cuddalore, Parangipettai, Lalpet, Neyveli, Ulundurpettai and Villupuram. A currently sea-bound moderate rain regime was on the verge of entering the Ponneri and Chennai stretches of north Tamil Nadu coast. Heavy rain was apparently lashing the Arappukottai, Sattur and Vilattikulam belt over south interior Tamil Nadu as well while to the immediate west, the central and northern parts of Kerala were largely cloudless or rain-free.
Sri Lanka Met watch
The Sri Lankan Meteorological Department said the depression over the south-west Bay was located about 290 km of Batticaloa and 410 km of Trincomalee close to midnight on Monday night. The system is likely to move north-west and intensify into a deep depression by Tuesday evening and move very closer to the east coast of the island. Cloudy skies are expected over most parts of the island and very heavy showers and strong winds over the northern, eastern, Uva and central provinces.
Inbound western disturbance
Passing of a western disturbance over north-west India with an accompanying band of stronger westerlies blowing deep down over east-central India over the next three-four days may likely influence the movement/track of the deep depression away from the Tamil Nadu coast. The slightly lower but supportive sea-surface temperatures near the coast is more or less neutralised by the growingly unfavourable wind shear values in the higher levels of the atmosphere, according to global models.
May loiter the waters
The IMD said the projected deep depression may continue to move north-northwest towards the Sri Lanka-Tamil Nadu coasts over next two days. Numerical models predict the system may toy with north Tamil Nadu coast not far from Chennai, without crossing it or moving inland. It may loiter over the nearby waters, weakened over time as a depression or a low-pressure area.
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