The South-West monsoon may have brought some respite to the parched southern peninsula, lower water storage levels in all but the northern region could have an impact not just on the Kharif but the Rabi season as well.
As a result, agriculture sector growth — almost flat last year — is likely to be less than in a normal year, said analysts.
Total storage level in 91 major reservoirs is pegged at 92.38 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 59 per cent of total capacity, as on September 10.
This is 77 per cent of the storage during the corresponding period last year and 81 per cent of the average over the last decade.
“There is a distinction between the northern irrigation systems and those in the west and the south. The latter depends more on tank irrigation which is banking on rainfall for replenishment, whereas in the North you have the systems being watered through perennial rivers and snow-melt,” explained DK Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil.
Storage levels alarming According to the Central Water Commission, the southern region has 31 reservoirs with a current storage level estimated to be 16.93 per cent – just 33 per cent of the total capacity of 51.59 bcm.
At the same time last year, storage was at 71 per cent is these reservoirs.
Available storage is pegged at 58 per cent of total capacity in the eastern and western regions, lower than last year in both cases.
The situation in northern India has improved, however, at 91 per cent against 82 per cent last year, while storage levels are down marginally in the central region.
“What this means is that without tanks getting replenished, the Rabi season is also likely to be affected in these regions. It need not be the same case in the North though,” Joshi added. Hence, Crisil has forecast agri-sector growth at 1.5 per cent for the current fiscal, lower than the typical 3-3.5 per cent rates achieved in a normal year, he said.
What could be a silver-lining, however, is the monsoon system gathering strength over the Bay of Bengal which could bring rainfall to areas most affected by the lack of rain over the four-month monsoon.
“The situation can improve in areas such as Marathwada, coastal and north interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema if this system intensifies,” said an IMD official.
Rainfall deficit As of Friday, the IMD estimated rainfall to be deficient by 15 per cent but recorded rainfall in the southern region showed a marked improvement even as withdrawal has begun from northwest India. Out of 36 sub-divisions, 17 have reported deficient rainfall between June 1 and September 11.
“There has been a revival in the monsoon in the South and sown crops should find relief with an improvement in soil moisture content. If it keeps up through September and early-October, then the outlook for the Rabi should improve since it is not positive at this point,” said JS Sandhu, Deputy Director General (Crop Science), Indian Council of Agricultural Research.
Crop outlook Around 96 per cent of Kharif sowing has been completed and total area under the season’s crops such as rice, soyabean and cotton, is 1.76 per cent more than at the same time last year. Almost all crops have registered increases in acreage, cotton and groundnut being notable exceptions. “Most of the varieties we urged farmers to use were a mix of short-duration and drought-tolerant varieties. As a result, we are hopeful that productivity should be better than last year,” said Sandhu.