Forty-five per cent districts in the country are experiencing a ‘swapping’ trend — traditionally flood-prone areas becoming drought-prone while flood prone areas are turning dry and arid, a research study by IPE Global and Esri India has said . The study also said that over 85 per cent of districts in India are exposed to extreme climate events such as floods, droughts and cyclones.

IPE Global is an international development organisation, while Esri India is a tech company delivering geographic information system (GIS) software, location intelligence, and mapping solutions. India had 729 districts in 2023 and some new districts created later are yet to be included in the list.

Four fold rise in floods

The number of districts that have transitioned from experiencing floods to facing droughts surpasses those that have shifted from droughts to floods, the report released Friday, said.

“Several districts, including Srikakulum, Cuttack, Guntur, Kurnool, Mahbubnagar, Nalgonda, and Paschim Champaran, among others, have seen this reversal from floods to droughts. States like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, are witnessing a notable increase in drought conditions,” the study said.

“Bengaluru Urban, Pune, Ahmedabad, Patna, Prayagraj districts are witnessing the maximum swapping trends. But Rajkot, Surendranagar, Ajmer, Jodhpur and Aurangabad have exhibited both flood and drought,” it said.

The eastern region is more prone to extreme flood events, followed by north-east and south peninsula. The last decade alone saw a five-fold increase in these climate extremes, with a four-fold increase in extreme flood events, it said.

On the other hand, there has been a two-fold increase in drought events, especially agricultural and meteorological droughts, and a four-fold increase in cyclone events, it said.

Extreme climate events

It also found more than 60 per cent of districts in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Assam had experienced more than one extreme climate event.

The study has compiled a catalogue of extreme climate events during a 50-year period between 1973 and 2023, employing spatial and temporal modelling, researchers said. “The current trend of catastrophic climate extremes that makes nine out of 10 Indians exposed to extreme climate events is a result of a 0.6 degree Celsius temperature rise in the last century,” said Abinash Mohanty, author of the study and head of climate change and sustainability practice at IPE Global.

The study has recommended establishing a Climate Risk Observatory, a risk-informed decision-making toolkit for policy makers at the national, state, district and city levels under a National Resilience Programme.

It has also asked the government to create an Infrastructure Climate Fund to support sustained investment in climate-resilient critical infrastructure and foster locally-led climate actions. “India must shift its budget focus from mitigation to adaptation to meet climate goals. Current practices under-fund climate resilience, risking long-term sustainability,” said Ashwajit Singh, founder and managing director of IPE Global, who also pointed out that India had 8 per cent GDP loss in 2022 and a cumulative capital wealth decrease of 7.5 per cent due to climate impacts.

“Our analysis suggests that more than 1.47 billion Indians will be highly exposed to climate extremes by 2036,” Mohanty summed up.

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