A near five-month dry spell in growing areas is likely to affect the production of coffee, especially robusta, the next season starting October.
“Robusta coffee is highly susceptible to water stress. The current dry spell will affect robusta production, though how much is difficult to say ,” said Mr Nishant Gurjer, Managing Partner, Sethuraman Estates and Kaapi Royale Coffee.
“Even this season due to the dry spell, farmers washed less of robustas since they retained water for irrigation. As a result, robusta parchment production was 50-60 per cent lower compared with last year,” said Mr Ramesh Rajah, President of Coffee Exporters Association of India.
deficient rainfall
“The dry spell is likely to spell greater trouble for robustas in areas where there are not irrigation facilities,” said Mr Anil K. Bhandar, former president of the United Planters Association of Southern India.
According to the India Meteorological Department, post-monsoon rainfall between October and December was 48 per cent below normal. Rainfall during January-March was 5 per cent lower than normal. However, since January, about 25 meteorological sub-divisions of the 36 in the country have had deficient rainfall.
Coffee production this season ending September has been estimated at a record 3.20 lakh tonnes against 3.02 lakh tonnes last season. Of this, arabica has been projected at 1.03 lakh tonnes (94,140 tonnes) and robusta 2.16 lakh tonnes (2.07 lakh tonnes).
“Small pockets in growing areas of Karnataka got rain in February and again a week ago,” said Mr Gurjer.
“This quarter-inch rain has led to blossoming in some areas. But there has been no follow-up rain and the blossoming has been squashed,” said Mr Bhandari.
“The prolonged dry spell will impact robusta severely next season,” said Mr Rajah.
More than the dry spell, it is the high temperature in the growing areas that is worrying planters.
“Against a normal temperature of 33-34 degrees Celsius, the temperature is 36 degrees Celsius. Also, there is huge variation between maximum and minimum temperatures. We have to see if this could have any effect,” said Mr Gurjer.
The pre-moosoon rain called “Revathy” in growing areas has been forecast for late March/early April. “If the rain fails to come as predicted, more trouble is in store,” said Mr Gurjer.
Arabica coffee, on the other hand, is drought-resistant and can tolerate the dry spell at least till the month-end. Therefore, it may not face as much problem as the robusta.
“If it rains in the next two weeks, there is sufficient time for arabica to recover,” said Mr Rajah.
“If rain comes on time, there will be good blossoming of arabica since the buds are ready,” said Mr Bhandari.
Karnataka is the key coffee growing State in the country, making up 70 per cent of the total production. Kerala, which is also facing a dry spell that is affecting other plantation crops such as tea, rubber and spices, is the second largest producer of coffee.
Meanwhile, exports this year are marginally higher. As of Wednesday, 98,073 tonnes were exported against 93,113 tonnes during the same period a year ago.