The 2015-16 El Nino, one of the most intense ever, is continuing to decline slowly and steadily, according to the latest update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled further over the past fortnight. International climate models indicate that cooling in the tropical Pacific will continue, with a likely return to ‘neutral’ levels by mid-2016.
During a La Nina, the equatorial and eastern basin of the Pacific cools below the critical threshold; the western stretches of the vast ocean (closer to Asia) becomes comparably warmer.
Warmth brings convection (cloud-building), storms and precipitation to this region, and when coinciding with the Indian monsoon, it brings good rains into the subcontinent as well.
But there is no clear signal as to when a La Nina, if at all, would become established in the Pacific, the Australian Met said.
It warned that accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year is lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised.
Rain, snow to return Back home, North-West India is bracing to receive the next western disturbance and another bout of heavy rain, snow, thunderstorms and hail from Thursday onwards.
The prevailing western disturbance, which has already triggered some disturbed weather over the region, is in the process of signing off.
The incoming system has reached the eastern parts of Iran and adjoining Afghanistan on Tuesday, an India Met Department update said.
It would now have to traverse through Afghanistan and Pakistan before it reaches North-West India by Wednesday night.
It will set off heavy rain and snow over Jammu and Kashmir on Thursday and Friday.
Thunderstorms accompanied by squall/hail are likely over Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab.
Thunderstorms in east Meanwhile, a remnant cyclonic circulation from the previous western disturbance and parked over East Rajasthan has thrown down a trough towards South to Rayalaseema.
It cuts through West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, and North Interior Karnataka, likely triggering thunderstorms along the way.
Preparing to exit from the country, this western disturbance is also influencing weather in the North-Eastern States where thunderstorms have been forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.
Areas likely to get affected are Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, the India Met Department said.