The El Nino-triggered warming of the East Equatorial Pacific waters could have a negative impact on the latter half (August-September) of this year’s South-West monsoon.
Private forecaster Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS), headed by Sonu Agrawal, came out with this outlook on Friday.
June may witness mostly normal to excess rainfall with deficiency indicated parts of West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining North-West Maharashtra, and parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
The rest of the hilly regions in the Himalayas (Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and foothills of West Uttar Pradesh) as well as the West Coast may witness heavy rains during the first month (June) of the season.
In July, the rainfall could be heavy over East Peninsular India (Telangana and parts of Andhra Pradesh) with Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Padesh, Bengal and the North-Eastern States sharing the spoils.
Normal to slightly below-normal precipitation is forecast for the rest of the country in what is supposedly the rainiest month of the monsoon.
August, the second rainiest, could likely witness deficiency in the South-West and foothills of West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala and adjoining South Coastal Karnataka.
The impact of the building El Nino could become demonstrably evident in September with major rainfall deficiency cropping up over Central India and adjoining North Peninsular India.
States likely getting affected are Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra and South Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Bihar and adjoining East Uttar Pradesh.