With the signature of a growing El Nino written large over the Indian monsoon, which are the Met subdivisions vulnerable to rain deficits during this month (August)?
The Gangetic Plains of North India show their susceptibility during an El Nino year such as this, says K Srikanth, a Chennai-based blogger.
July eventsSrikanth analysed the scenario to reassess the vulnerability of various Met subdivisions after factoring in the actual sequence of events in July.
Both East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are, more often than not, highly vulnerable for failure in August when the preceding July has left behind a deficit.
The drought-prone subdivisions of Marathwada and Rayalaseema also fit the bill during August after a below-normal July.
Most of the West Coast except Kerala falls into deficit once July and August have delivered below par.
Subdivisions in the East and North-East India seem to be less influenced by an El Nino with most, except Bihar, showing lesser chances for poor rain in August.
Strong influenceAssam, Meghalaya, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura normally ride their luck on a strong showing in June.
On the other hand, some of the subdivisions in North-West India are betting on a bumper July to end the season with a decent rain record.
In the South, almost all subdivisions are faced with the prospect of a poor August and thereby a poor season overall indicating a potentially stronger El Nino influence over this part of the country.
An earlier study by Srikanth in early July had shown how critical July rainfall is for the prospects of monsoon season as a whole. It listed out subdivisions vulnerable to deficit rain during El Nino years.
The final July numbers are in sync with the expectations from a study for 12 sub divisions, Srikanth told BusinessLine . Of these, eight had been identified as highly vulnerable.
All of them have ended up with a deficit. Thirteen other subdivisions marked out as less or moderately vulnerable also ended up in the red.
But five, picked out for being moderate-to-highly vulnerable, turned in a surplus after they received isolated heavy rainfall of high intensity.