Extreme heavy rain for East MP, Chhattisgarh today as depression moves closer

Monday’s deep depression crossed the Odisha coast on Tuesday morning and lay weakened as a depression over North Chhattisgarh and adjoining interior Odisha, 90 km west-south-west of Jharsuguda (Odisha); 70 km west-north-west of Sambalpur (Odisha); 120 km east-south-east of Bilaspur (Chhattisgarh); and 170 km east-northeast of Raipur (Chhattisgarh).

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the system is likely to move west-north-west (towards central India) to north Chhattisgarh and weaken into a ‘well-marked’ low-pressure area over Chhattisgarh and adjoining East Madhya Pradesh by Tuesday evening. Numerical weather predictions said it will stand firm against intruding dry north-westerly winds from across the Indo-Pakistan border for a few days.

Satellite view

Satellite pictures on Tuesday morning showed moderate to heavy rain over Nagpur, Chandrapur, Gondia, Amravati, Akola, Nanded, and Kinwat (Maharashtra); Chhindwara, Jabalpur, Shahdol, Betul, and Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh), Nizamabad and Ramagundam (Telangana); and Raipur and Korba (Chhattisgarh); and farther away to Udaipur (East Rajasthan), Hisar (Haryana), and Shimla (Himachal Pradesh), triggered by varying rain-generating systems as detailed later.

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Western disturbance

The system would have weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area by the time it reaches east Madhya Pradesh. From there, it would push itself to south-west Uttar Pradesh by Thursday and even strengthen after running into an incoming western disturbance. Located over central Pakistan on Tuesday morning, the disturbance will move further east along its track, cross the international border into north-west India, and scoop up the well-marked ‘low’ by Thursday.

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The combined system will move to the east towards east India, even as opposing winds from an aggressive South China Sea blow across Indochina and the Bay of Bengal and slow it down. Given this play of moisture-laden winds, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread to moderate rain over West and Central India during the week. Isolated extremely heavy rain is likely over East Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday, as the depression/well-marked ‘low’ moves into the region.

Wet session for East MP

In an outlook for Tuesday, the IMD predicted heavy to very heavy rain (12 cm+) with extremely heavy falls (20 cm+) over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; very heavy rain over East Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha; and heavy rain (7 cm+) over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, plains of West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat region, Kerala and Mahe, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, coastal Karnataka, and South Interior Karnataka.

Secondary trough stays

The core monsoon trough passed through Bikaner, Kota, Guna, and Sagar; the centre of depression moved over North Chhattisgarh and adjoining interior Odisha, Puri, and then south-eastwards into central Bay of Bengal as it lay south of its normal alignment. A secondary, non-monsoonal trough continued to run down from south-west Uttar Pradesh across north Madhya Pradesh towards the centre of the depression. Presence of a secondary trough is not a good augury for the core monsoon system.

This should not be a worry since the monsoon season is closing in for a normal close over the next week (by September 17). But prevailing remnant of the late deep depression in the season may keep the season alive for a few days more. How much longer will depend on the response, or the lack of it, from the Bay of Bengal to waves/pulses from an aggressive South China Sea.