Extremely severe cyclone Mocha might weaken and make landfall between South-East Bangladesh and North Myanmar coasts around Sunday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said.
Extremely severe cyclone Mocha, packing winds with speeds of 190-200 km and gusting 220 km/hrover the East-Central Bay of Bengal, was located about 570 km North-North-West of Port Blair; 730 km South-South-West of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh); and 660 km South-West of Sittwe (Myanmar) on Saturday morning.
It may move to the North-North-East and cross South-East Bangladesh and North Myanmar coasts between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), close to Sittwe around noon tomorrow (Sunday) slightly weakened as a very severe cyclone, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 150-160 km/hr gusting to 175 km/hr, the IMD said.
The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology located Mocha about 403 km West-North-West of Coco Island; 546 km West of Hainggyigyun; 537 km South-West of Sittwe (all in Myanmar); 610 km North-North-West of Port Blair; 694 km South-South-West of Cox’s Bazar .
Read: Mocha turns very severe cyclone, may intensify further ahead of landfall
The dangerous storm may approach the Rakhine coast near Sittwe as a very severe cyclone. Currently, its wind speed near the centre are in the range 194 km/hr t0 213 km/hr.
Heavy rain for Myanmar
After landfall, the very severe cyclone may race further North-North-East towards Chin State and Magway and Sagaing regions in Myanmar.
Rain or thundershowers will be widespread in Naypyitaw, Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Yangon, Ayeyarwady and Taninthayi regions as well as in Kachin, Shan, Chin, Rakhine, Kayah, Kayin and Mon states.
Regionally heavy falls are likely Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, Bago, Yangon and Ayeyarwady Regions and Kachin, Chin and Rakhine states while being isolated heavy in Naypyitaw and Shan, Kayah, Kayin, Mon states from today (Saturday) to Monday.
Super cyclone?
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suspects that the extremely severe cyclone (wind speeds of 190-200 km/hr gusting to 220 km/hr as per IMD forecasts for today) may ramp up briefly class-topping super cyclone category (above 221 km/hr). There is the possibility that will reach a maximum intensity of 231 km/hr due to favourable environment before it runs into some speed bumps ahead of landfall, the US agency said.
This would lead to weakening of the system by a round during this phase.
Monsoon over Myanmar
Meanwhile, the Myanmar national forecaster said the South-West monsoon is likely to set in over the Southern Myanmar areas during the ongoing week beginning today to Thursday (May 18) in the wake of the flows triggered by very severe cyclone Mocha.
This is the normal timeline for the onset of the seasonal rains in the country.
The monsoon may set in over the Deltaic Myanmar area during the week ending May 24.
The monsoon is expected to be moderate during this phase, the agency said.