Exports of major agro and marine products to the UK are unlikely to see any significant impact.

As a major chunk of the trade between India and the UK was still invoiced in dollar terms, the potential indirect impact could be linked to the movement of pound against dollar and rupee realisations, exporters said.

“The weakening of pound has resulted in dollar and yen gaining, which would have implication for export of plantation commodities as much of the trade is done in dollar terms,” said N Dharmaraj, President of the United Planters Association of India (Upasi). India annually ships around 20 million kg of tea to the UK, one of the major export destinations.

However, with respect to natural rubber, the US and Japan being the third and fourth largest consumers, their currency appreciation will lead to a negative impact on trade balance — in effect, the returns to growers will be hit as a result of lower prices, Dharmaraj added.

In case of Basmati, the shipments to the UK will not be impacted, said Tejinder Narang, grains trade analyst.S Patra, Secretary, Indian Tea Association, said it would be too early to assess the impact of the cross currency movements.

“UK consumers will continue to consume cashew irrespective of their decision and the verdict will not have much impact on exports from India to that country,” Sasi Varma, Secretary, Cashews Export Promotion Council of India, said.

However, there may be a shift in the main entry point of cashew exports, which is right now Rotterdam, and the UK imports could be handled at London. Last year, India exported 1,780 tonnes of cashew to the UK, valued at ₹90 crore.

According to Norbert Karikkasseri, President of the Seafood Exporters Association of India, Kerala region, it would take at least three months to evaluate the impact on marine foods exports following the decision in the referendum. The officials in Marine Products Exports Development Agency were of the view that Brexit would not have a big impact on seafood exports to Britain. As it would take at least two years for Britain to fully exit from the EU, Gulshan John, Chairman, All India Spices Exporters Forum, feels that the spice trade, by the time, can realign its business by chalking out strategies to explore the markets in the UK, a major destination of India’s spices and curry powder. Spices export turnover is about $2.45 billion, out of which exports to the UK is about $91 million. In volume terms, the figure stood at 25,000 tonnes last year, he said.

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