A private firm, commissioned by the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India (RFMFI), has estimated the country’s wheat production to be 102.89 million tonnes (mt) this year against 97.69 mt last year, after factoring in 1.35 mt of crop losses following unseasonable rains and hailstorms in past one month.
The government released its estimate in February projecting it at a record high of 112.18 mt for this year against 107.74 mt last year. “Though both government and private sectors have agreed that the production is 4-5 mt higher from last year, there is a wide difference of 9 mt in production estimates between the two,” said a flour miller.
Releasing the wheat crop estimate in Delhi on Friday, Subodh Kumar Singh, Additional Secretary in Food Ministry, said there will be at least 10 mt of higher availability of wheat this year (5 mt from export ban and 5 mt from higher production). Both the private and government agencies have similar views on likely production loss of 1-2 mt due to untimely rains and hailstorms, he said.
Singh said, “It is good that the private sector is also coming forward to do these types of studies and coming out with some figures. They have shared their methodology and also how they have arrived at those figures. Whether the estimates are accurate or not, will be established in the course of time. The agencies which are doing this survey will also improvise their methodology and try to reach the correct estimates.”
Will aid govt
He said as the government has been taking various policy decisions if the actual estimates of the crop are known it is better for the government. He said such estimates will help the Food Ministry in taking decisions regarding export, open market sale scheme (OMSS) and public distribution system (PDS).
The government has banned wheat exports since May 2022 in order to arrest the rise in domestic prices. The RFMFI has urged the government to lift the ban on export of wheat products once the government’s procurement gets over.
AgriWatch, the agency commissioned by RFMFI, initially projected wheat output at 104.24 mt in March. But it revised the estimate downward to 102.9 mt, factoring crop losses, said Nalin Rawal, director (GIS services).
Addressing the gathering, Ashok K Meena, Chairman and Managing Director of Food Corporation of India (FCI), said about 0.7 mt of wheat has been procured so far, against less than 0.2 mt in the year-ago period. He appealed to the millers to procure wheat from the market rather than depending on the government. However, he assured that if 34.15 mt of wheat is procured as targeted, there will be some availability for OMSS.
Wheat stock with FCI was at 8.4 mt as on April 1 against the buffer norm of 7.5 mt, Meena said.