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The country’s foodgrain production in the current season ending June is likely to decline by 5.4 per cent from a record output of 265.04 million tonnes (mt) the year before.
Weather vagaries According to the third advance estimate released by the Agriculture Ministry here on Wednesday, total foodgrain output will be 13.92 mt lower at 251.12 mt for this season, the lowest since 244.49 million tonnes produced in 2010-11.
Rice output is estimated at 102.54 mt, down from 106.65 mt last season, while that of wheat, the main Rabi crop, which was damaged across swathes of northern, central and western India due to unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms between end-February and early-April, has been pegged at 90.78 mt from 95.85 mt last season, the lowest in the last three years.
Total production of coarse cereals is expected to decline by 2.87 mt to 40.42 mt, while the estimate for key pulses stands at 17.38 mt – down from 19.25 mt.
“It may be noted that production of Kharif crops during 2014-15 suffered due to bad monsoon. Unseasonal rains/hailstorm during February-March 2015 had significant impact on production of rabi crops. As a result of setback in Kharif as well as Rabi seasons, the production of most of the crops in the country has declined this season,” said an official release.
Production of oilseeds is also likely to be lower by 5.37 mt – from 32.75 mt to 27.38 mt, while cotton output will also likely decline marginally to 35.32 million bales (of 170 kg each) but will be “higher by 2.85 million bales than the average production of last 5 years.”
Only sugarcane production is likely to rise by 4.42 mt to 356.56 mt from 352.14 mt, which could further depress prices of sugar in the domestic market with a fifth consecutive season of surplus production already in the offing.
Contongency plans According to the Met Department, this year could witness another below normal monsoon due to the El Nino weather effect even if the rain is likely to arrive on time and hit the Kerala coast by June 1.
Minister of State for Agriculture Sanjeev Kumar Balyan said on Wednesday that the Centre is ready with contingency plans for 580 districts in case of acute weather disturbances.
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