The Indian monsoon has apparently stumbled on another tropical storm brewing in the northwest Pacific.

A named tropical storm ‘Guchol’ has taken shape to the east of the Philippines, and is on course to become a typhoon (tropical cyclone) by the weekend.

This, it appears, is what is holding back the monsoon to what is the second lull phase after it made a delayed onset over mainland India.

London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group sees ‘Guchol’ taking a north-northeast track off the Philippines and Taipei, a similar track to typhoon ‘Mawar’ earlier this month.

‘Guchol’ would be in the reckoning with typhoon status at least until Monday. The forecast track for its onward movement would have ramifications for monsoon flows headed for India.

This is the third time that the monsoon has had to contend with a cyclone/typhoon during the short time since onset.

Earlier ‘Mawar’ in the same ocean basin had intervened in the onset phase, followed close on its heels by tropical cyclone ‘Kuena’ in the southwest Indian Ocean post onset.

These systems take away moisture and flows outside of the territorial waters and do not allow helpful low-pressure areas/monsoon depressions to take shape in the Bay of Bengal.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

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