The lookout for a building cyclone in the South-West Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu just got a little murkier with international models drawing up mutually contrasting scenarios with respect to its track.

The India Met Department, the most authentic source for forecasts for storms developing in the seas under its surveillance, has said that the preparatory low-pressure area may form as early as tomorrow (Thursday).

The location would be to the South-East of Sri Lanka where the ‘low’ is expected to intensify as a depression by the day after (Friday) and a tropical cyclone by Sunday.\

Also read:IMD says depression may morph into cyclone by Saturday, hit TN

It could likely strengthen further before hitting the coast between Chennai and Puducherry by Wednesday, as per initial outlook, and weaken as it tracks into the neighbouring Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Different scenarios

Interestingly, international models are discussing other possibilities: one of them sees a remnant of the cyclone re-entering the Bay off the Andhra Pradesh coast and intensifying again to set up a fresh cyclone.

It would then race away into the open Bay and pick a north-north-east track towards the Arakan coast (Myanmar) or adjoining Bangladesh coast.

A weather tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre more or less agrees with this outlook, signalling that the Bay may get charged not long after the Tamil Nadu coast has received the first impact.

A second scenario conjures up a situation where the cyclone weakens over interior Tamil Nadu, travels westwards to enter the Arabian Sea off Kerala-Karnataka coasts where it could find fresh traction.

A third one depicts the preparatory ‘low’ shooting-off like a meteor from near South-East Sri Lanka and travelling straight in a east-north-east direction towards Myanmar/Bangladesh.

No clarity

None of these can be ruled outright in the case of a cyclone taking shape during the pre-monsoon months, with the western disturbances moving across North-West India having a role in deciding its track.

There are a couple of weak disturbances crossing the region during the period under reference, but it is debatable whether they carry the punch to steer the cyclone along with it towards east-north-east. However, this is exactly what two major international models are pointing to, with a track aimed at Myanmar/Bangladesh.

To the West, the dominant anti-cyclone is gradually breaking up over the Arabian Sea, weakening the strong northerly flows which would have scared away an incoming system from across the Bay/South Peninsula.

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