The period of monsoon transition – build-up to and on trail - is known to create ideal conditions for cyclones to take shape in the Bay of Bengal.
The months of May and October have therefore witnessed such cyclones, most recently Super Cyclone Phailin that hit Andhra Pradesh-Odisha in October last year.
This October appears no different, with an array of international models forecasting the possibility of a cyclone hitting the same coast during October 10 to 13.
This is strikingly close to the timeline that Phailin maintained, as too are features associated with the genesis of the storm being predicted by most of these agencies.
Twin Pacific typhoons, Phanfone and successor Vongfong, have surfed up the northwest Pacific basin and ‘excited’ the neighbouring South China Sea.
Phanfone is about to hit Japan, and Vongfong appears to follow a similar track, which is farther and away from South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
SEVERE CYCLONE?
But southeasterly to easterly flows associated with these storms and warming up of the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal will ensure that ideal conditions for storm development are created in these basins.
Some of these models see a weather system developing upstream in South China Sea and crossing into southeast Bay/Andaman Sea as a fully developed storm.
This was the pattern witnessed in the case of Super Cyclone Phailin, too, which underwent early development in the Gulf of Thailand, just across the international waters.
The most outspoken forecast is from the UK Met model, which sees a severe cyclone posturing off the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast by October 10.
PEER FORECASTS
The US Navy Global Environmental Model (Navgem) and Global Forecast System of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre both vouch for a cyclone developing in the Bay and heading for the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast around October 11/12.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has maintained a watch for what it sees is a developing cyclone of minimal strength and likely making landfall over by October 12.
An ensemble model outlook from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System and a multi-model ensemble of the Naval Oceanography Portal says a mature system crossing in from South China Sea.
TROUGH DEVELOPING
An ensemble model of the Canadian Met Centre sees a system developing over Andaman Sea and awaiting further evolution in the Andaman Sea later next week.
Back home, India Met Department has already picked a trough of lower pressure (not amounting to an organised low-pressure area) over the Andaman Sea.
It has also forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next three days in what looks like a countdown to the creation of a low-pressure area in the area without much delay.