India’s coffee output during the 2024-25 season may shrink by about 20 per cent with growers in Karnataka, which accounts for over 70 per cent of the production, fearing a crop loss of between 20 and 30 per cent on erratic weather pattern this year.

The flowering was impacted by higher-than-normal temperatures in February-April with the prolonged dry conditions during the pre-monsoon period, while continuous and excess rains during July triggered berry droppings and diseases such as root rot among others in several pockets.

“The crop looks ok, average and bad too sporadically in patches. Still, the extremities such as initial prolonged drought and then continuous rains have had their effect on crop prospects. The overall impact could be a 20 per cent crop loss,” said KG Rajeev, Chairman, Karnataka Planters Association, the apex body of coffee growers in the State. Rajeev said arabica looks to be more impacted compared to the robustas.

Mixed monsoon

While Karnataka received continuous and excess rains during July, the cumulative precipitation in the current monsoon season till now has been a mixed bag.

As per the Indian Meteorological Department data, Chikmagaluru has received a cumulative rainfall surplus of 47 per cent from June 1 till date in the ongoing monsoon, while the precipitation has been 5 per cent more in Kodagu district, whereas Hassan district has received a cumulative deficit of 14 per cent. Rains are continuing across the key growing regions.

“The crop could be less by 20-30 per cent over the last year due to host of factors such as prolonged dry spell in the pre-monsoon period, excess and continuous rains during July leading to berry droppings in some areas,” said A Nanda Belliappa, Chairman, Codagu Planters Association. Also due to the labour shortage, growers couldn’t carry out the shade lopping, and the prevailing high temperature levels are seen having an impact, he said.

Belliappa said the forecast of rains in the coming months is also crucial for the crop. Arabica will be ready to harvest by November-December.

Board post-blossom estimates

According to the Coffee Board, the output for 2023-24, as per the post-blossom estimates, was 3.74 lakh tonnes (lt) comprising 1.13 lt of arabicas and 2.61 lt of robustas. Final crop estimates for the 2023-24 season are yet to be announced.

“The new crop will be definitely lower than last year,” said HT Mohan Kumar, President, Karnataka Growers Federation. While in some areas the damage has been in excess of 40 per cent, in other areas it is less. The overall crop loss would be above 30 per cent, Mohan Kumar said. “While the prices are good, the growers may not have a good crop due to the weather vagaries,” he said.

Not only Karnataka, excess rains in Wayanad, the main coffee producing region of Kerala, are also seen hurting the crop prospects. The USDA had earlier in June projected a dip in India’s coffee output for the crop year 2024-25 starting October, mainly for the arabica variety.

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