As very severe cyclone Vayu inches closer to the Gujarat coast for an eventual landfall by Thursday morning, global models are closely monitoring the waters of the Bay of Bengal, on the other side of the peninsula, for signs of storm genesis.

The India Met Department (IMD) has already traced out a rudimentary cyclonic circulation over the North-East and adjoining East-Central Bay, which needs to descend to the lower levels of atmosphere for further development.

Dousing of heat

A weather tracker of the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has hinted that it will develop into a storm, cross the Odisha-Bengal coast, and drive into the interior of Central India towards Gujarat over the next 8-10 days. This could potentially douse the extreme heat currently prevailing over a swathe of the landmass, and also signal the entry of the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon into the farming heartland of the country.

But for this to happen, Vayu has to make a landfall first, weaken, and fizzle out over South-East Pakistan and South-West Rajasthan on either side of the international border, as is being projected.

The IMD said in its evening bulletin on Wednesday that Vayu lay parked over East-Central Arabian Sea, about 310 km West-South-West of Mumbai, 280 km South of Veraval, and 360 km nearly South of Porbandar (both in Gujarat).

It will resume its journey northwards and cross the Gujarat coast between Dwarka and Veraval, which is slightly West-North-West to the landfall area projected earlier. It will hit the coast as a very severe cyclone, and weaken only with landfall.

Significantly, the IMD has ramped up the top wind speeds of the powerful cyclone from 145-155 km/hr gusting to 170 km/hr to 155-165 km/hr gusting to 180 km/hr at the time of landfall.

After crossing, the system is likely to move along and parallel to the Saurashtra and Kutch coasts with its band of forceful winds and heavy rain lashing the districts from Amreli to Kutch.

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