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The heat-spewing anticyclone over North-West India may recede from land and back off into the Central Arabian Sea to make way later for a moisture-laden western disturbance and associated cloud cover towards the month-end and early March. Numerical weather models of India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicate rain or snow in the Western Himalayas (hills of North-West India) and adjoining plains until March 3.
According to an extended outlook issued by IMD and valid for three days from February 26 to 28, light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall is likely over the Western Himalayan Region, while light to moderate to scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the South in the Bay of Bengal.
Anticyclone to South
Global model forecasts agreed that the anticyclone will be pushed initially to the South over the Arabian Sea before being nudged into the Karnataka coast, away from the direct influence of the western disturbance. This will allow it to regain some strength as it gets pushed East by the predominant westerly wind regime, propagating associated heat to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Bay of Bengal by early March, an outlook by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said.
Revival in movement of cooler western disturbances promises to moderate the early heat build-up in the hills and plains of North-West and East India. A weak disturbance, the bane of the season so far, lay on Tuesday morning over North-West Rajasthan with an induced cyclonic circulation over Punjab and adjoining North Pakistan. It will trigger light isolated rain/snow over the hills until Wednesday.
Better endowed disturbance
A better endowed western disturbance is expected to roll in across the Rajasthan border during the first few days of March, with likely enhanced realisation in terms of rainfall over a larger swathe of the hills and plains of North-West India. This should keep the heat at bay over the region until then, according to model predictions.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology quoted models indicating a renewed rain-friendly MJO pulse remaining in the Western Pacific during the first week of March. Hence, environmental conditions may continue to favour near- to above-average rainfall during the ongoing Australian monsoon. But continuing westerly flows across North Australia and the South-West Pacific may weaken the normal trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the current La Niña.
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