The strong monsoon phase has conjured up a full-fledged depression over north Bay of Bengal, adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and coastal Odisha.
A persisting low-pressure area in the region had beat forecasts to intensify twice over and become a depression by Monday afternoon.
The system strength only demonstrated signs of its ‘proud lineage’ to super typhoon Rammasun that hit Hainan Island and mainland China a couple of days ago, the strongest in 40 years.
The super typhoon lobbed in an offspring as it roared its way west across the South China Sea. It was guided over Vietnam and Myanmar, before it dropped anchor in the Bay a couple of days ago. It went on to settle down as a ‘low’ on Sunday and intensified into a depression the next afternoon.
The depression, buffeted by strong winds and heavy outer rain bands, would move across central and adjoining north peninsular India during the next couple of days.
Measured progress A couple of weather models suggested that it could meet with a premature death over west Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan.
It may just stop short of pushing the core of rain head into Gujarat. Other models suggested it could get drawn into a larger east-to-west trough over central India from the Bay to Gujarat. A few international models suggested that it would forfeit the strength and intensity in favour of a likely incoming circulation from typhoon Matmo currently active over the northwest Pacific.
They pointed to the possibility of the rains petering out by Wednesday/Thursday before the next likely ‘low’ from Matmo can revive it two to three days hence.
Next ‘low’? But this turn of events may not prevent the depression from sparking torrential heavy rain over east and east-central India to begin with and later over central India, and parts of west, and North-West India. The Met said that the monsoon had entered the active mode over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha from Sunday itself.
The pull power of the system would bring heavy to very rain over Konkan, Mumbai, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, entire Madhya Pradesh and east Gujarat over the next three days.
The rest of the south peninsula, except interior Tamil Nadu, adjoining Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Telangana, may also benefit from spill-over rain as the system tracks to the west.