Rainfall deficit for the country as a whole has come down from a peak eight per cent to just one per cent on Saturday, under the onslaught of the monsoon over East and Central India and along the West Coast. With a week to go in July, rains are preparing to move to West and North-West India.
Rainfall deficit over North-East India is now down to 15 per cent and North-West India to 11 per cent, with only West Uttar Pradesh in the red. Rainfall is normal over Central India with Gujarat nursing a deficit. The South Peninsula has a surplus, despite Kerala and Lakshadweep in deficit.
Fresh ‘low’ in Bay next week
On Saturday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that a rain-driving intensified low-pressure area has weakened a round to become a conventional ‘low’, and located it over Jharkhand and adjoining North Chhattisgarh even as a successor may show up over the Bay of Bengal in next four days.
Meanwhile, Mahabaleshwar, a plateau bounded by the lofty heights of the Western Ghats and a favourite monsoon playground, lived up to its name after a record-breaking spell of 60 cm on Thursday that spilled into Saturday morning to get drenched by another 32 cm of heavy rain.
Heavy to extremely heavy rain
Other stations that recorded heavy rain (in cm) during this period are: Nikudga-26; Susner and Pirawa-21 each; Welhe, Male and Dhabhara-20 each; Patan and Munnar-19 each; Garoth, Sanawad, Kolhapur and Patharia-18 each; Umaria, Satara and Valprai-17 each; Shahpura and Takhatpur-16 each; Avalanche and Paud-Mulshal-15 each; Lohegaon-13; Bhor, Wadgaon, Maval, Bilaspur, Gondia and Khandwa-12 each; Mungeli and Sihora-11 each; Ratnagiri, Kumdam, Majholi, Peermade, and Mananthavady-10 cm each.
The monsoon trough continues to run south of its normal position, indicating an active season. It is likely to continue to stay the same for two more days, the IMD said. The offshore trough, the other major rain-driving feature, now runs truncated from Karnataka coast to Kerala coast. The IMD has pushed back formation of the fresh low-pressure area by a day to July 28 (Wednesday next).
Rain intensity may reduce
The IMD expects the rainfall over the West Coast, including Konkan, Goa, and adjoining Interior Maharashtra, to taper by Sunday with the prevailing ‘low’ weakening. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy may continue over Gujarat till Sunday and weaken.
An almost similar outlook is being extended to East and adjoining Central India where the fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls will gradually lift. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may persist over East Rajasthan until Monday. Isolated extremely heavy falls are also likely over East Rajasthan on Sunday.
Rain belt to move to West
Rainfall activity may escalate over North-West India from Sunday. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Uttarakhand until Wednesday; over Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh from Monday to Wednesday; and Punjab and East Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated extremely heavy falls may break out over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Tuesday and Wednesday. An extended outlook for predicted widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely over the hills of North-West India, parts of East India and along the West coast.
Scattered rainfall activity is forecast for most parts except interior Maharashtra, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu where isolated rainfall is likely.